The Prediction Markets

Markwayne Mullin confirmed as DHS Secretary by...?

Closed
Apr 30, 2026
Traded
$26K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Apr 30, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 210 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
April 30
100%
Polymarket 100%polled, 5052 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
April 30
Last price
100%
As of
Polled 210 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.9¢
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Polymarket
March 31
100%
Polymarket 100%polled, 5052 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
March 31
Last price
100%
As of
Polled 210 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.9¢
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 2 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • April 30
  • March 31

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Markwayne Mullin confirmed as DHS Secretary by...?". April 30 last traded at 100%. Next is March 31 at 100%. $26K has traded across 2 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Apr 30, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Markwayne Mullin is confirmed as the United States Secretary of Homeland Security by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Markwayne Mullin is formally nominated for the role, and his nomination is then formally withdrawn, or if the Senate rejects the nomination, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. The Senate must confirm Markwayne Mullin as Secretary of Homeland Security for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments or assumption of the position in an acting capacity without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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