The Prediction Markets

Marvel: Actor cast as Miles Morales

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$25K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

No actor chosen by end of 2027 85%

Next is Caleb McLaughlin at 14.4%. The venues differ most on Caleb McLaughlin (Polymarket 3.5%, Kalshi 18%), a 14-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
No actor chosen by end of 2027
85%
Polymarket 85%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
Contract
No actor chosen by end of 2027
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Caleb McLaughlinArb
14.4%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Caleb McLaughlin
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$364
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Caleb McLaughlin
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 17¢ nets 1100 bps before fees.

Alex R. Hibbert
11.4%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alex R. Hibbert
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Alex R. Hibbert
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$361
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 13¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 17¢.

Dallas Dupree Young
9.9%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $763 (7.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dallas Dupree Young
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
13.1¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$763 (7.63x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dallas Dupree Young
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 13¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 13.1¢.

Tyler James Williams
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tyler James Williams
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$153
Trade this on Kalshi
Miles BrownArb
6.9%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Miles Brown
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$398
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Miles Brown
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$839
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 3.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 7¢ nets 320 bps before fees.

Justice Smith
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Justice Smith
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$273
Trade this on Kalshi
Myles TruittArb
2.4%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Myles Truitt
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$362
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Myles Truitt
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$14
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.3¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 70 bps before fees.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Caleb McLaughlin on Polymarket at 6¢, sell on Kalshi at 17¢ (1100 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 1, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 30, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Marvel
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jan 1, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 30, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • No actor chosen by end of 2027
  • Caleb McLaughlin
  • Alex R. Hibbert

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list No actor chosen by end of 2027 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Marvel: Actor cast as Miles Morales". No actor chosen by end of 2027 leads at 85%. Next is Caleb McLaughlin at 14.4%. $25K has traded across 8 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 30, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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