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What the markets expect
Moore, 18+ pts 94.2%
Next is Moore, 24+ pts at 93.3%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Moore, 18+ pts94.2%Not listed94.2%90.8¢ bid, 97.6¢ askpolled, 1 min ago97.6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $102 (1.02x)Moore, 18+ pts94.2%Kalshi 94.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Moore, 18+ pts
94.2%
Not listed
94.2%
90.8¢ bid, 97.6¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
97.6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Moore, 18+ pts
94.2%
Kalshi 94.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Moore, 18+ pts
- Last price
- 94.2%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 97.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 90.8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $102 (1.02x)
Moore, 24+ pts93.3%Not listed93.3%82¢ bid, 93.3¢ askpolled, 1 min ago93.3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $107 (1.07x)Moore, 24+ pts93.3%Kalshi 93.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 93.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $107 (1.07x)
Moore, 24+ pts
93.3%
Not listed
93.3%
82¢ bid, 93.3¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
93.3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $107 (1.07x)
Moore, 24+ pts
93.3%
Kalshi 93.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 93.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $107 (1.07x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Moore, 24+ pts
- Last price
- 93.3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 93.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 82¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $107 (1.07x)
- Volume
- $200
Moore, 21+ pts88%Not listed88%88¢ bid, 97.6¢ askpolled, 1 min ago97.6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $102 (1.02x)Moore, 21+ pts88%Kalshi 88%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Moore, 21+ pts
88%
Not listed
88%
88¢ bid, 97.6¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
97.6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Moore, 21+ pts
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Moore, 21+ pts
- Last price
- 88%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 97.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 88¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $102 (1.02x)
- Volume
- $62
Moore, 27+ pts82%Not listed82%72¢ bid, 82¢ askpolled, 1 min ago82¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $122 (1.22x)Moore, 27+ pts82%Kalshi 82%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Moore, 27+ pts
82%
Not listed
82%
72¢ bid, 82¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
82¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Moore, 27+ pts
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Moore, 27+ pts
- Last price
- 82%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 82¢
- Sell Yes
- 72¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $122 (1.22x)
Moore, 30+ pts65%Not listed65%61¢ bid, 72¢ askpolled, 1 min ago72¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $139 (1.39x)Moore, 30+ pts65%Kalshi 65%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Moore, 30+ pts
65%
Not listed
65%
61¢ bid, 72¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
72¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Moore, 30+ pts
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Moore, 30+ pts
- Last price
- 65%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 72¢
- Sell Yes
- 61¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $139 (1.39x)
- Volume
- $466
Moore, 33+ pts49%Not listed49%47¢ bid, 58¢ askpolled, 1 min ago58¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $172 (1.72x)Moore, 33+ pts49%Kalshi 49%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Moore, 33+ pts
49%
Not listed
49%
47¢ bid, 58¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
58¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Moore, 33+ pts
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Moore, 33+ pts
- Last price
- 49%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 58¢
- Sell Yes
- 47¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $172 (1.72x)
- Volume
- $114
Moore, 36+ pts33%Not listed33%32¢ bid, 33¢ askpolled, 1 min ago33¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $303 (3.03x)Moore, 36+ pts33%Kalshi 33%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Moore, 36+ pts
33%
Not listed
33%
32¢ bid, 33¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
33¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Moore, 36+ pts
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Moore, 36+ pts
- Last price
- 33%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 33¢
- Sell Yes
- 32¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $303 (3.03x)
- Volume
- $201
Moore, 39+ pts24%Not listed24%19¢ bid, 24¢ askpolled, 1 min ago24¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $417 (4.17x)Moore, 39+ pts24%Kalshi 24%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Moore, 39+ pts
24%
Not listed
24%
19¢ bid, 24¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
24¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Moore, 39+ pts
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Moore, 39+ pts
- Last price
- 24%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 24¢
- Sell Yes
- 19¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $417 (4.17x)
- Volume
- $5
Democrat 25-30%19.5%19.5%19¢ bid, 20¢ askpolled, 22s agoNot listed20¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $500 (5.00x)Democrat 25-30%19.5%Polymarket 19.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Democrat 25-30%
19.5%
19.5%
19¢ bid, 20¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
Not listed
20¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Democrat 25-30%
19.5%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 25-30%
- Last price
- 19.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 20¢
- Sell Yes
- 19¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $500 (5.00x)
- Volume
- $3K
Democrat 0-10%18.7%18.7%1.2¢ bid, 36.2¢ askpolled, 22s agoNot listed36.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $276 (2.76x)Democrat 0-10%18.7%Polymarket 18.7%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 36.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $276 (2.76x)
Democrat 0-10%
18.7%
18.7%
1.2¢ bid, 36.2¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
Not listed
36.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $276 (2.76x)
Democrat 0-10%
18.7%
Polymarket 18.7%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 36.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $276 (2.76x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 0-10%
- Last price
- 18.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 36.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $276 (2.76x)
- Volume
- $589
Show 9 more outcomesHide 9 outcomes
Democrat 20-25%18.5%18.5%11¢ bid, 26¢ askpolled, 22s agoNot listed26¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $385 (3.85x)Democrat 20-25%18.5%Polymarket 18.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Democrat 20-25%
18.5%
18.5%
11¢ bid, 26¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
Not listed
26¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Democrat 20-25%
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 20-25%
- Last price
- 18.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 26¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $385 (3.85x)
- Volume
- $3K
Democrat 30-35%15%15%12¢ bid, 18¢ askpolled, 22s agoNot listed18¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $556 (5.56x)Democrat 30-35%15%Polymarket 15%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Democrat 30-35%
15%
15%
12¢ bid, 18¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
Not listed
18¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Democrat 30-35%
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 30-35%
- Last price
- 15%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 18¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $556 (5.56x)
- Volume
- $2K
Democrat 35-40%15%15%14¢ bid, 16¢ askpolled, 22s agoNot listed16¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $625 (6.25x)Democrat 35-40%15%Polymarket 15%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Democrat 35-40%
15%
15%
14¢ bid, 16¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
Not listed
16¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Democrat 35-40%
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 35-40%
- Last price
- 15%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- 14¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
- Volume
- $4K
Democrat 40-45%13.1%13.1%11.1¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 22s agoNot listed15¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $667 (6.67x)Democrat 40-45%13.1%Polymarket 13.1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Democrat 40-45%
13.1%
13.1%
11.1¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
Not listed
15¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Democrat 40-45%
13.1%
Polymarket 13.1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 40-45%
- Last price
- 13.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 11.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $3K
Moore, 42+ pts8.7%Not listed8.7%8¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 1 min ago15¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $667 (6.67x)Moore, 42+ pts8.7%Kalshi 8.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Moore, 42+ pts
8.7%
Not listed
8.7%
8¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
15¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Moore, 42+ pts
8.7%
Kalshi 8.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Moore, 42+ pts
- Last price
- 8.7%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $40
Democrat 15-20%8.2%8.2%0.8¢ bid, 15.5¢ askpolled, 22s agoNot listed15.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $645 (6.45x)Democrat 15-20%8.2%Polymarket 8.2%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 15.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $645 (6.45x)
Democrat 15-20%
8.2%
8.2%
0.8¢ bid, 15.5¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
Not listed
15.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $645 (6.45x)
Democrat 15-20%
8.2%
Polymarket 8.2%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 15.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $645 (6.45x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 15-20%
- Last price
- 8.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 15.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $645 (6.45x)
- Volume
- $440
Democrat 45%+4.7%4.7%1.2¢ bid, 8.2¢ askpolled, 22s agoNot listed8.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,220 (12.2x)Democrat 45%+4.7%Polymarket 4.7%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 8.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,220 (12.2x)
Democrat 45%+
4.7%
4.7%
1.2¢ bid, 8.2¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
Not listed
8.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,220 (12.2x)
Democrat 45%+
4.7%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 8.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,220 (12.2x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 45%+
- Last price
- 4.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,220 (12.2x)
- Volume
- $632
Democrat 10-15%4%4%0.9¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 22s agoNot listed7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Democrat 10-15%4%Polymarket 4%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Democrat 10-15%
4%
4%
0.9¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
Not listed
7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Democrat 10-15%
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 10-15%
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $663
Republican Wins3.7%3.7%1.1¢ bid, 6.3¢ askpolled, 22s agoNot listed6.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)Republican Wins3.7%Polymarket 3.7%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Republican Wins
3.7%
3.7%
1.1¢ bid, 6.3¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
Not listed
6.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Republican Wins
3.7%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Republican Wins
- Last price
- 3.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,587 (15.9x)
- Volume
- $515
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Maryland State Board of Elections
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Moore, 18+ pts
- Moore, 24+ pts
- Moore, 21+ pts
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Polymarket doesn’t list Moore, 18+ pts for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Maryland Governor margin of victory". Moore, 18+ pts leads at 94.2%. Next is Moore, 24+ pts at 93.3%. $19K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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