The Prediction Markets

Maryland's 1st District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$25K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Harris, 2+ pts 69%

Next is Harris, 5+ pts at 55%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Harris, 2+ pts
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Harris, 2+ pts
Last price
69%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Harris, 5+ pts
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Harris, 5+ pts
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Harris, 8+ pts
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
Harris, 8+ pts
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Harris, 11+ pts
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Harris, 11+ pts
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$206
Trade this on Kalshi
Harris, 14+ pts
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Harris, 14+ pts
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$61
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 9-12%
21.5%
Polymarket 21.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 9-12%
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 6-9%
21%
Polymarket 21%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 6-9%
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 12-15%
21%
Polymarket 21%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 12-15%
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 15-18%
21%
Polymarket 21%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-18%
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Harris, 17+ pts
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Harris, 17+ pts
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
4.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 9 more outcomes
Harris, 20+ pts
9.8%
Kalshi 9.8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Harris, 20+ pts
Last price
9.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
9.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,020 (10.2x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 18-21%
5.1%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 9.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,031 (10.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 18-21%
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
9.7¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,031 (10.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 3-6%
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,136 (11.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 3-6%
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8.8¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,136 (11.4x)
Volume
$401
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-3%
4.4%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-3%
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Volume
$420
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 3%+
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 3%+
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$364
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-3%
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-3%
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$248
Trade this on Polymarket
Harris, 23+ pts
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Harris, 23+ pts
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7.7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,299 (13.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Harris, 26+ pts
2.1%
Kalshi 2.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Harris, 26+ pts
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$22
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 21%+
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 21%+
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$348
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Harris, 2+ pts
  • Harris, 5+ pts
  • Harris, 8+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Harris, 2+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Maryland's 1st District margin of victory". Harris, 2+ pts leads at 69%. Next is Harris, 5+ pts at 55%. $25K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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