The Prediction Markets

Maryland's 2nd District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$18K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Olszewski, 14+ pts 92.2%

Next is Olszewski, 17+ pts at 85%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Olszewski, 14+ pts
92.2%
Kalshi 92.2%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 95.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Olszewski, 14+ pts
Last price
92.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95.3¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Olszewski, 17+ pts
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 96.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Olszewski, 17+ pts
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96.1¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Olszewski, 20+ pts
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Olszewski, 20+ pts
Last price
77%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Olszewski, 23+ pts
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Olszewski, 23+ pts
Last price
69%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Olszewski, 26+ pts
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Olszewski, 26+ pts
Last price
55%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Olszewski, 29+ pts
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Olszewski, 29+ pts
Last price
45%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Olszewski, 32+ pts
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Olszewski, 32+ pts
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 30-35%
30.5%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30-35%
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 25-30%
28.5%
Polymarket 28.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
28.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Olszewski, 35+ pts
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Olszewski, 35+ pts
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$270
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
Democrat 35-40%
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35-40%
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 20-25%
11.2%
Polymarket 11.2%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 13.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $725 (7.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
11.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13.8¢
Sell Yes
8.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$725 (7.25x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Olszewski, 38+ pts
10.7%
Kalshi 10.7%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Olszewski, 38+ pts
Last price
10.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
7.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 10-15%
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-15%
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
5.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Volume
$307
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 40%+
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 5.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 40%+
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.1¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,961 (19.6x)
Volume
$381
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 15-20%
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$242
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-10%
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-10%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$320
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$303
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Olszewski, 14+ pts
  • Olszewski, 17+ pts
  • Olszewski, 20+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Olszewski, 14+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Maryland's 2nd District margin of victory". Olszewski, 14+ pts leads at 92.2%. Next is Olszewski, 17+ pts at 85%. $18K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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