The Prediction Markets

Maryland's 4th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$27K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Ivey, 64+ pts 93.3%

Next is Ivey, 67+ pts at 89.7%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Ivey, 64+ pts
93.3%
Kalshi 93.3%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 99.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ivey, 64+ pts
Last price
93.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.1¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ivey, 67+ pts
89.7%
Kalshi 89.7%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 95.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ivey, 67+ pts
Last price
89.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95.3¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ivey, 70+ pts
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ivey, 70+ pts
Last price
81%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Kalshi
Ivey, 73+ pts
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ivey, 73+ pts
Last price
70%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Kalshi
Ivey, 76+ pts
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ivey, 76+ pts
Last price
59%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Kalshi
Ivey, 79+ pts
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ivey, 79+ pts
Last price
47%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Ivey, 82+ pts
33.5%
Kalshi 33.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ivey, 82+ pts
Last price
33.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 80-85%
30.5%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 80-85%
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ivey, 85+ pts
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ivey, 85+ pts
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$90
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 85-90%
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 85-90%
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
Democrat 75-80%
19.5%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 75-80%
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ivey, 88+ pts
8.5%
Kalshi 8.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ivey, 88+ pts
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 90%+
7.3%
Polymarket 7.3%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 9.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,031 (10.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 90%+
Last price
7.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.7¢
Sell Yes
4.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,031 (10.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 70-75%
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 7.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 70-75%
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.8¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,282 (12.8x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 65-70%
4.3%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 65-70%
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.4¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,351 (13.5x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-50%
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-50%
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$664
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 50-60%
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 50-60%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 60-65%
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 60-65%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$683
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Ivey, 64+ pts
  • Ivey, 67+ pts
  • Ivey, 70+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Ivey, 64+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Maryland's 4th District margin of victory". Ivey, 64+ pts leads at 93.3%. Next is Ivey, 67+ pts at 89.7%. $27K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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