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What the markets expect
Boafo, 27+ pts 92%
Next is Boafo, 30+ pts at 85.8%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Boafo, 27+ pts92%Not listed92%92¢ bid, 99¢ askpolled, just now99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Boafo, 27+ pts92%Kalshi 92%polled, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Boafo, 27+ pts
92%
Not listed
92%
92¢ bid, 99¢ ask
polled, just now
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Boafo, 27+ pts
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Boafo, 27+ pts
- Last price
- 92%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 92¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
- Volume
- $1K
Boafo, 30+ pts85.8%Not listed85.8%80¢ bid, 91.5¢ askpolled, just now91.5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $109 (1.09x)Boafo, 30+ pts85.8%Kalshi 85.8%polled, just nowBest Yes 91.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Boafo, 30+ pts
85.8%
Not listed
85.8%
80¢ bid, 91.5¢ ask
polled, just now
91.5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Boafo, 30+ pts
85.8%
Kalshi 85.8%polled, just nowBest Yes 91.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Boafo, 30+ pts
- Last price
- 85.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 91.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 80¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $109 (1.09x)
Boafo, 33+ pts74.5%Not listed74.5%69¢ bid, 80¢ askpolled, just now80¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $125 (1.25x)Boafo, 33+ pts74.5%Kalshi 74.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Boafo, 33+ pts
74.5%
Not listed
74.5%
69¢ bid, 80¢ ask
polled, just now
80¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Boafo, 33+ pts
74.5%
Kalshi 74.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Boafo, 33+ pts
- Last price
- 74.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 80¢
- Sell Yes
- 69¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $125 (1.25x)
Boafo, 36+ pts64.5%Not listed64.5%59¢ bid, 70¢ askpolled, just now70¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $143 (1.43x)Boafo, 36+ pts64.5%Kalshi 64.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Boafo, 36+ pts
64.5%
Not listed
64.5%
59¢ bid, 70¢ ask
polled, just now
70¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Boafo, 36+ pts
64.5%
Kalshi 64.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Boafo, 36+ pts
- Last price
- 64.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 70¢
- Sell Yes
- 59¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $143 (1.43x)
Boafo, 39+ pts54.5%Not listed54.5%49¢ bid, 60¢ askpolled, just now60¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $167 (1.67x)Boafo, 39+ pts54.5%Kalshi 54.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Boafo, 39+ pts
54.5%
Not listed
54.5%
49¢ bid, 60¢ ask
polled, just now
60¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Boafo, 39+ pts
54.5%
Kalshi 54.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Boafo, 39+ pts
- Last price
- 54.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 60¢
- Sell Yes
- 49¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $167 (1.67x)
Boafo, 42+ pts44.5%Not listed44.5%39¢ bid, 50¢ askpolled, just now50¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $200 (2.00x)Boafo, 42+ pts44.5%Kalshi 44.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Boafo, 42+ pts
44.5%
Not listed
44.5%
39¢ bid, 50¢ ask
polled, just now
50¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Boafo, 42+ pts
44.5%
Kalshi 44.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Boafo, 42+ pts
- Last price
- 44.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 50¢
- Sell Yes
- 39¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $200 (2.00x)
Democrat 45-50%40.1%40.1%37.3¢ bid, 42.9¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed42.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $233 (2.33x)Democrat 45-50%40.1%Polymarket 40.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 42.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Democrat 45-50%
40.1%
40.1%
37.3¢ bid, 42.9¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
42.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Democrat 45-50%
40.1%
Polymarket 40.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 42.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 45-50%
- Last price
- 40.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 42.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 37.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $233 (2.33x)
- Volume
- $2K
Boafo, 45+ pts38%Not listed38%28¢ bid, 38¢ askpolled, just now38¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $263 (2.63x)Boafo, 45+ pts38%Kalshi 38%polled, just nowBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Boafo, 45+ pts
38%
Not listed
38%
28¢ bid, 38¢ ask
polled, just now
38¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Boafo, 45+ pts
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, just nowBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Boafo, 45+ pts
- Last price
- 38%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 38¢
- Sell Yes
- 28¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $263 (2.63x)
- Volume
- $60
Democrat 40-45%32.5%32.5%30¢ bid, 35¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed35¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $286 (2.86x)Democrat 40-45%32.5%Polymarket 32.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Democrat 40-45%
32.5%
32.5%
30¢ bid, 35¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
35¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Democrat 40-45%
32.5%
Polymarket 32.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 40-45%
- Last price
- 32.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 35¢
- Sell Yes
- 30¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $286 (2.86x)
- Volume
- $2K
Boafo, 48+ pts22.5%Not listed22.5%17¢ bid, 28¢ askpolled, just now28¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $357 (3.57x)Boafo, 48+ pts22.5%Kalshi 22.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Boafo, 48+ pts
22.5%
Not listed
22.5%
17¢ bid, 28¢ ask
polled, just now
28¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Boafo, 48+ pts
22.5%
Kalshi 22.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Boafo, 48+ pts
- Last price
- 22.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 28¢
- Sell Yes
- 17¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $357 (3.57x)
Show 9 more outcomesHide 9 outcomes
Boafo, 51+ pts14%Not listed14%5.6¢ bid, 16¢ askpolled, just now16¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $625 (6.25x)Boafo, 51+ pts14%Kalshi 14%polled, just nowBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Boafo, 51+ pts
14%
Not listed
14%
5.6¢ bid, 16¢ ask
polled, just now
16¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Boafo, 51+ pts
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, just nowBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Boafo, 51+ pts
- Last price
- 14%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- 5.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
- Volume
- $205
Democrat 30-35%11%11%10.1¢ bid, 11.9¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed11.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $840 (8.40x)Democrat 30-35%11%Polymarket 11%polled, just nowBest Yes 11.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $840 (8.40x)
Democrat 30-35%
11%
11%
10.1¢ bid, 11.9¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
11.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $840 (8.40x)
Democrat 30-35%
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, just nowBest Yes 11.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $840 (8.40x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 30-35%
- Last price
- 11%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 11.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 10.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $840 (8.40x)
- Volume
- $449
Democrat 50-55%6%6%4.1¢ bid, 7.8¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed7.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)Democrat 50-55%6%Polymarket 6%polled, just nowBest Yes 7.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Democrat 50-55%
6%
6%
4.1¢ bid, 7.8¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
7.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Democrat 50-55%
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, just nowBest Yes 7.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 50-55%
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 4.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,282 (12.8x)
- Volume
- $367
Democrat 35-40%4.6%4.6%1.8¢ bid, 7.4¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed7.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)Democrat 35-40%4.6%Polymarket 4.6%polled, just nowBest Yes 7.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Democrat 35-40%
4.6%
4.6%
1.8¢ bid, 7.4¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
7.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Democrat 35-40%
4.6%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, just nowBest Yes 7.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 35-40%
- Last price
- 4.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,351 (13.5x)
- Volume
- $459
Democrat 15-25%4.5%4.5%1.8¢ bid, 7.1¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed7.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)Democrat 15-25%4.5%Polymarket 4.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 7.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Democrat 15-25%
4.5%
4.5%
1.8¢ bid, 7.1¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
7.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Democrat 15-25%
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 7.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 15-25%
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,408 (14.1x)
- Volume
- $2K
Democrat 25-30%4.3%4.3%1.1¢ bid, 7.4¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed7.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)Democrat 25-30%4.3%Polymarket 4.3%polled, just nowBest Yes 7.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Democrat 25-30%
4.3%
4.3%
1.1¢ bid, 7.4¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
7.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Democrat 25-30%
4.3%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, just nowBest Yes 7.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 25-30%
- Last price
- 4.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,351 (13.5x)
- Volume
- $238
Democrat 55%+3.6%3.6%0.9¢ bid, 6.3¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed6.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)Democrat 55%+3.6%Polymarket 3.6%polled, just nowBest Yes 6.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Democrat 55%+
3.6%
3.6%
0.9¢ bid, 6.3¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
6.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Democrat 55%+
3.6%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, just nowBest Yes 6.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 55%+
- Last price
- 3.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,587 (15.9x)
- Volume
- $427
Republican Wins3.3%3.3%1¢ bid, 5.6¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed5.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)Republican Wins3.3%Polymarket 3.3%polled, just nowBest Yes 5.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Republican Wins
3.3%
3.3%
1¢ bid, 5.6¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
5.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Republican Wins
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, just nowBest Yes 5.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Republican Wins
- Last price
- 3.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,786 (17.9x)
- Volume
- $204
Democrat 0-15%1.1%1.1%0.3¢ bid, 1.8¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed1.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)Democrat 0-15%1.1%Polymarket 1.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Democrat 0-15%
1.1%
1.1%
0.3¢ bid, 1.8¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
1.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Democrat 0-15%
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 0-15%
- Last price
- 1.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,556 (55.6x)
- Volume
- $537
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Boafo, 27+ pts
- Boafo, 30+ pts
- Boafo, 33+ pts
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Polymarket doesn’t list Boafo, 27+ pts for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Maryland's 5th District margin of victory". Boafo, 27+ pts leads at 92%. Next is Boafo, 30+ pts at 85.8%. $10K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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