The Prediction Markets

Maryland's 6th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$20K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Delaney, 3+ pts 92.1%

Next is Delaney, 6+ pts at 90.1%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Delaney, 3+ pts
92.1%
Kalshi 92.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Delaney, 3+ pts
Last price
92.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
92.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$505
Trade this on Kalshi
Delaney, 6+ pts
90.1%
Kalshi 90.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Delaney, 6+ pts
Last price
90.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
90.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$928
Trade this on Kalshi
Delaney, 9+ pts
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 96.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Delaney, 9+ pts
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
96.3¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$272
Trade this on Kalshi
Delaney, 12+ pts
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Delaney, 12+ pts
Last price
76%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$832
Trade this on Kalshi
Delaney, 15+ pts
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Delaney, 15+ pts
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Delaney, 18+ pts
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Delaney, 18+ pts
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Delaney, 21+ pts
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Delaney, 21+ pts
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$260
Trade this on Kalshi
Delaney, 24+ pts
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Delaney, 24+ pts
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$575
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 20-25%
29%
Polymarket 29%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$966
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 25%+
23%
Polymarket 23%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25%+
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 8 more outcomes
Delaney, 27+ pts
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Delaney, 27+ pts
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$452
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 15-20%
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 22.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $442 (4.42x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22.6¢
Sell Yes
3.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$442 (4.42x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 10-15%
12.2%
Polymarket 12.2%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 20.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $485 (4.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-15%
Last price
12.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20.6¢
Sell Yes
3.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$485 (4.85x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Delaney, 30+ pts
11.3%
Kalshi 11.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Delaney, 30+ pts
Last price
11.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
5.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 0-5%
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 5-10%
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 9.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,087 (10.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5-10%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.2¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,087 (10.9x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 5%+
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 5%+
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$210
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-5%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-5%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$205
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Maryland State Board of Elections

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Delaney, 3+ pts
  • Delaney, 6+ pts
  • Delaney, 9+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Delaney, 3+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Maryland's 6th District margin of victory". Delaney, 3+ pts leads at 92.1%. Next is Delaney, 6+ pts at 90.1%. $20K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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