The Prediction Markets

Maryland's 8th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$19K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Raskin, 50+ pts 93.4%

Next is Raskin, 53+ pts at 86.1%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Raskin, 50+ pts
93.4%
Kalshi 93.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Raskin, 50+ pts
Last price
93.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99.4¢
Sell Yes
91.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Raskin, 53+ pts
86.1%
Kalshi 86.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 91.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Raskin, 53+ pts
Last price
86.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
91.2¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Raskin, 56+ pts
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Raskin, 56+ pts
Last price
75%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Raskin, 59+ pts
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Raskin, 59+ pts
Last price
69%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$240
Trade this on Kalshi
Raskin, 62+ pts
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Raskin, 62+ pts
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Raskin, 65+ pts
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Raskin, 65+ pts
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 60-65%
34.5%
Polymarket 34.5%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 60-65%
Last price
34.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Raskin, 68+ pts
31.5%
Kalshi 31.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Raskin, 68+ pts
Last price
31.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 65-70%
24%
Polymarket 24%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 65-70%
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 55-60%
20.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 55-60%
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
Raskin, 71+ pts
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Raskin, 71+ pts
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$141
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 40-50%
8.4%
Polymarket 8.4%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 14.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $699 (6.99x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 40-50%
Last price
8.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14.3¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$699 (6.99x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 70-75%
7.2%
Polymarket 7.2%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 13.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $763 (7.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 70-75%
Last price
7.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13.1¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$763 (7.63x)
Volume
$671
Trade this on Polymarket
Raskin, 74+ pts
6.4%
Kalshi 6.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Raskin, 74+ pts
Last price
6.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
4.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$7
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 75-80%
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 8.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,235 (12.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 75-80%
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.1¢
Sell Yes
2.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,235 (12.3x)
Volume
$894
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-40%
4.8%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-40%
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
3.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 80%+
4.2%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 80%+
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$603
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 50-55%
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 4.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 50-55%
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.1¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,439 (24.4x)
Volume
$770
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 17s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$500
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Raskin, 50+ pts
  • Raskin, 53+ pts
  • Raskin, 56+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Raskin, 50+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Maryland's 8th District margin of victory". Raskin, 50+ pts leads at 93.4%. Next is Raskin, 53+ pts at 86.1%. $19K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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