The Prediction Markets

Massachusetts Governor margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$42K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Healey, 14+ pts 80%

Next is Healey, 17+ pts at 68%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Healey, 14+ pts
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Healey, 14+ pts
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Healey, 17+ pts
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Healey, 17+ pts
Last price
68%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$928
Trade this on Kalshi
Healey, 20+ pts
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Healey, 20+ pts
Last price
54%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Healey, 23+ pts
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Healey, 23+ pts
Last price
38%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 20-25%
23.5%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Healey, 26+ pts
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Healey, 26+ pts
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 25-30%
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Healey, 32+ pts
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Healey, 32+ pts
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$611
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 30-35%
12.2%
Polymarket 12.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30-35%
Last price
12.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
10.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 15-20%
11.2%
Polymarket 11.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $806 (8.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
11.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12.4¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$806 (8.06x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
Healey, 29+ pts
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Healey, 29+ pts
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$824
Trade this on Kalshi
Healey, 35+ pts
9.4%
Kalshi 9.4%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 9.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,064 (10.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Healey, 35+ pts
Last price
9.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.4¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,064 (10.6x)
Volume
$820
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 10-15%
6.9%
Polymarket 6.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,136 (11.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-15%
Last price
6.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.8¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,136 (11.4x)
Volume
$792
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 5-10%
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5-10%
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
6.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Healey, 38+ pts
4.6%
Kalshi 4.6%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Healey, 38+ pts
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$442
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 35-40%
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35-40%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.2¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,389 (13.9x)
Volume
$857
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 40%+
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 40%+
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.2¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,389 (13.9x)
Volume
$741
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-5%
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$611
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$805
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Healey, 14+ pts
  • Healey, 17+ pts
  • Healey, 20+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Healey, 14+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Massachusetts Governor margin of victory". Healey, 14+ pts leads at 80%. Next is Healey, 17+ pts at 68%. $42K has traded across 19 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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