The Prediction Markets

Massachusetts Senate margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$27K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Markey, 21+ pts 92.5%

Next is Markey, 23+ pts at 83%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Markey, 21+ pts
92.5%
Kalshi 92.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 92.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Markey, 21+ pts
Last price
92.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92.5¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
Markey, 23+ pts
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Markey, 23+ pts
Last price
83%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Markey, 25+ pts
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Markey, 25+ pts
Last price
75%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$205
Trade this on Kalshi
Markey, 27+ pts
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Markey, 27+ pts
Last price
59%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Markey, 29+ pts
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Markey, 29+ pts
Last price
56%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Markey, 31+ pts
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Markey, 31+ pts
Last price
44%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Markey, 33+ pts
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Markey, 33+ pts
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 30-35%
25.5%
Polymarket 25.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30-35%
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Markey, 35+ pts
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Markey, 35+ pts
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$533
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 35-40%
21.5%
Polymarket 21.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35-40%
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 12 more outcomes
Democrat 25-30%
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Markey, 37+ pts
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Markey, 37+ pts
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
6.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$430
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 20-25%
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Markey, 41+ pts
9.6%
Kalshi 9.6%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 9.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Markey, 41+ pts
Last price
9.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,042 (10.4x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Markey, 43+ pts
7.5%
Kalshi 7.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 7.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Markey, 43+ pts
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,299 (13.0x)
Volume
$661
Trade this on Kalshi
Markey, 39+ pts
7.2%
Kalshi 7.2%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Markey, 39+ pts
Last price
7.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 40-45%
6.3%
Polymarket 6.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,099 (11.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 40-45%
Last price
6.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.1¢
Sell Yes
3.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,099 (11.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 15-20%
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $980 (9.80x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10.2¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$980 (9.80x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 45%+
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 45%+
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 10-15%
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-15%
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$888
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-10%
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-10%
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$853
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$835
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Markey, 21+ pts
  • Markey, 23+ pts
  • Markey, 25+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Markey, 21+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Massachusetts Senate margin of victory". Markey, 21+ pts leads at 92.5%. Next is Markey, 23+ pts at 83%. $27K has traded across 22 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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