The Prediction Markets

Massachusetts's 3rd District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$14K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Trahan, 19+ pts 95.5%

Next is Trahan, 16+ pts at 93.1%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Trahan, 19+ pts
95.5%
Kalshi 95.5%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 99.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trahan, 19+ pts
Last price
95.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.2¢
Sell Yes
91.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Trahan, 16+ pts
93.1%
Kalshi 93.1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 99.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trahan, 16+ pts
Last price
93.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.2¢
Sell Yes
93.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$90
Trade this on Kalshi
Trahan, 22+ pts
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 99.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trahan, 22+ pts
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.1¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Trahan, 25+ pts
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 94.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trahan, 25+ pts
Last price
86%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94.9¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$165
Trade this on Kalshi
Trahan, 28+ pts
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trahan, 28+ pts
Last price
74%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Kalshi
Trahan, 31+ pts
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trahan, 31+ pts
Last price
61%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$70
Trade this on Kalshi
Trahan, 34+ pts
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trahan, 34+ pts
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$160
Trade this on Kalshi
Trahan, 37+ pts
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trahan, 37+ pts
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 40-45%
30%
Polymarket 30%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 40-45%
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 35-40%
28%
Polymarket 28%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35-40%
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 11 more outcomes
Trahan, 40+ pts
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trahan, 40+ pts
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$521
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 30-35%
20%
Polymarket 20%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30-35%
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Trahan, 43+ pts
11.9%
Kalshi 11.9%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trahan, 43+ pts
Last price
11.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
6.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 25-30%
10%
Polymarket 10%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Trahan, 46+ pts
5.4%
Kalshi 5.4%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trahan, 46+ pts
Last price
5.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,020 (10.2x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 20-25%
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$568
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 45%+
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 5.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 45%+
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.1¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,961 (19.6x)
Volume
$881
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 15-20%
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$401
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$376
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-5%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$347
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 5-15%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5-15%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$378
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Trahan, 19+ pts
  • Trahan, 16+ pts
  • Trahan, 22+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Trahan, 19+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Massachusetts's 3rd District margin of victory". Trahan, 19+ pts leads at 95.5%. Next is Trahan, 16+ pts at 93.1%. $14K has traded across 21 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More other markets

See all other markets