The Prediction Markets

Massachusetts's 6th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$29K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Koh, 19+ pts 94.5%

Next is Koh, 16+ pts at 92.3%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Koh, 19+ pts
94.5%
Kalshi 94.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Koh, 19+ pts
Last price
94.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
90.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Koh, 16+ pts
92.3%
Kalshi 92.3%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 96.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Koh, 16+ pts
Last price
92.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96.9¢
Sell Yes
92.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Koh, 22+ pts
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 97.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Koh, 22+ pts
Last price
87%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97.5¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$55
Trade this on Kalshi
Koh, 25+ pts
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Koh, 25+ pts
Last price
77%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$845
Trade this on Kalshi
Koh, 28+ pts
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Koh, 28+ pts
Last price
66%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Kalshi
Koh, 31+ pts
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Koh, 31+ pts
Last price
52%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$55
Trade this on Kalshi
Koh, 34+ pts
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Koh, 34+ pts
Last price
46%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$919
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 35-40%
42%
Polymarket 42%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35-40%
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 30-35%
39.5%
Polymarket 39.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30-35%
Last price
39.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Koh, 37+ pts
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Koh, 37+ pts
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$729
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 10 more outcomes
Koh, 40+ pts
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Koh, 40+ pts
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
9.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$317
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 25-30%
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Koh, 43+ pts
6.6%
Kalshi 6.6%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Koh, 43+ pts
Last price
6.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 45%+
4.4%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 45%+
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.4¢
Sell Yes
4.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,273 (22.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 40-45%
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 40-45%
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 15-20%
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 20-25%
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 5-15%
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5-15%
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-5%
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$940
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Koh, 19+ pts
  • Koh, 16+ pts
  • Koh, 22+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Koh, 19+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Massachusetts's 6th District margin of victory". Koh, 19+ pts leads at 94.5%. Next is Koh, 16+ pts at 92.3%. $29K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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