The Prediction Markets

Massachusetts's 9th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$17K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Keating, 8+ pts 95.8%

Next is Keating, 11+ pts at 90.4%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Keating, 8+ pts
95.8%
Kalshi 95.8%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 99.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Keating, 8+ pts
Last price
95.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.5¢
Sell Yes
92.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Keating, 11+ pts
90.4%
Kalshi 90.4%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 90.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Keating, 11+ pts
Last price
90.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90.6¢
Sell Yes
90.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Keating, 14+ pts
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 96.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Keating, 14+ pts
Last price
86%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96.4¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Kalshi
Keating, 17+ pts
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Keating, 17+ pts
Last price
77%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Kalshi
Keating, 20+ pts
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Keating, 20+ pts
Last price
66%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Keating, 23+ pts
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Keating, 23+ pts
Last price
52%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Keating, 26+ pts
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Keating, 26+ pts
Last price
47%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$306
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 25-30%
26%
Polymarket 26%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 30-35%
25%
Polymarket 25%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30-35%
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Keating, 29+ pts
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Keating, 29+ pts
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
Democrat 20-25%
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Keating, 32+ pts
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Keating, 32+ pts
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$931
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 15-20%
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 10-15%
6.1%
Polymarket 6.1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 10.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $935 (9.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-15%
Last price
6.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10.7¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$935 (9.35x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 35%+
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35%+
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$812
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$649
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-5%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$651
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 5-10%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5-10%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$751
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Keating, 8+ pts
  • Keating, 11+ pts
  • Keating, 14+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Keating, 8+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Massachusetts's 9th District margin of victory". Keating, 8+ pts leads at 95.8%. Next is Keating, 11+ pts at 90.4%. $17K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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