The Prediction Markets

Match total payers in 2026

Closes
Mar 31, 2028, in 17 months
Traded
$27K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 12.4 million 83%

Next is Above 12.6 million at 66%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 12.4 million
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 12.4 million
Last price
83%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 12.6 million
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 12.6 million
Last price
66%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 12.8 million
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 12.8 million
Last price
60%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 13 million
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 13 million
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 13.2 million
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 13.2 million
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$307
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 13.4 million
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 13.4 million
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 13.8 million
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 13.8 million
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 13.6 million
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 13.6 million
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$276
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fiscal.ai

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 12.4 million
  • Above 12.6 million
  • Above 12.8 million

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Match total payers in 2026". Above 12.4 million leads at 83%. Next is Above 12.6 million at 66%. $27K has traded across 8 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 31, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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