The Prediction Markets

Match total payers in Q3

Closes
Mar 4, 2027, in 4 months
Traded
$3K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 12.6 million 97%

Next is Above 12.8 million at 97%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 12.6 million
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 12.6 million
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 12.8 million
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 12.8 million
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 13 million
96.5%
Kalshi 96.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 13 million
Last price
96.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 13.2 million
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 13.2 million
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$170
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 13.4 million
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 13.4 million
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$172
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 13.6 million
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 13.6 million
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$90
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 13.8 million
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 13.8 million
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$380
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 14 million
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 14 million
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$474
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 14.4 million
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 14.4 million
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$176
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 14.6 million
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 14.6 million
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$714
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 14.2 million
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 14.2 million
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$398
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fiscal.ai

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 12.6 million
  • Above 12.8 million
  • Above 13 million

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Match total payers in Q3". Above 12.6 million leads at 97%. Next is Above 12.8 million at 97%. $3K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 4, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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