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What the markets expect
Stays with Las Vegas or Retires 66.7%
Next is Chicago at 3.3%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Stays with Las Vegas or Retires66.7%82%66.7% fair82¢ bid, 83¢ askpolled, 44s ago83¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $120 (1.20x)Stays with Las Vegas or Retires66.7%Kalshi 82%(66.7% fair)polled, 44s agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Stays with Las Vegas or Retires
66.7%
82%
66.7% fair
82¢ bid, 83¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
83¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Stays with Las Vegas or Retires
66.7%
Kalshi 82%(66.7% fair)polled, 44s agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Stays with Las Vegas or Retires
- Last price
- 82%
- Fair, margin removed
- 66.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 83¢
- Sell Yes
- 82¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $120 (1.20x)
- Volume
- $530K
Chicago3.3%4%3.3% fair— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 44s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Chicago3.3%Kalshi 4%(3.3% fair)polled, 44s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Chicago
3.3%
4%
3.3% fair
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Chicago
3.3%
Kalshi 4%(3.3% fair)polled, 44s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Chicago
- Last price
- 4%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $361K
Dallas3.3%4%3.3% fair— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 44s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Dallas3.3%Kalshi 4%(3.3% fair)polled, 44s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Dallas
3.3%
4%
3.3% fair
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Dallas
3.3%
Kalshi 4%(3.3% fair)polled, 44s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Dallas
- Last price
- 4%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $324K
Philadelphia2.5%3%2.4% fair— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 44s ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Philadelphia2.5%Kalshi 3%(2.4% fair)polled, 44s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Philadelphia
2.5%
3%
2.4% fair
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Philadelphia
2.5%
Kalshi 3%(2.4% fair)polled, 44s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Philadelphia
- Last price
- 3%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $221K
Buffalo1.7%2%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 44s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Buffalo1.7%Kalshi 2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Buffalo
1.7%
2%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Buffalo
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Buffalo
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $110K
Cleveland1.7%2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 44s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Cleveland1.7%Kalshi 2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Cleveland
1.7%
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Cleveland
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Cleveland
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $75K
Arizona0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 44s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Arizona0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Arizona
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Arizona
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Arizona
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $4K
Atlanta0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 44s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Atlanta0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Atlanta
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Atlanta
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Atlanta
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $22K
Baltimore0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 44s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Baltimore0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Baltimore
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Baltimore
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Baltimore
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $258K
Carolina0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 44s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Carolina0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Carolina
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Carolina
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Carolina
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $35K
Show 22 more outcomesHide 22 outcomes
Cincinnati0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 44s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Cincinnati0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Cincinnati
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Cincinnati
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Cincinnati
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $113K
Denver0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 44s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Denver0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Denver
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Denver
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Denver
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $7K
Detroit0.8%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 44s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Detroit0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Detroit
0.8%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Detroit
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Detroit
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $107K
Green Bay0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 44s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Green Bay0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Green Bay
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Green Bay
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Green Bay
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $25K
Houston0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 44s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Houston0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Houston
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Houston
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Houston
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $4K
Indianapolis0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 44s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Indianapolis0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Indianapolis
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Indianapolis
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Indianapolis
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $55K
Jacksonville0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 44s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Jacksonville0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Jacksonville
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Jacksonville
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jacksonville
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $86K
Kansas City0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 44s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Kansas City0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kansas City
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kansas City
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kansas City
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $17K
Los Angeles C0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 44s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Los Angeles C0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Los Angeles C
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Los Angeles C
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Los Angeles C
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $31K
Los Angeles R0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 44s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Los Angeles R0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Los Angeles R
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Los Angeles R
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Los Angeles R
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $94K
Miami0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 44s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Miami0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Miami
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Miami
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Miami
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $36K
Minnesota0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 44s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Minnesota0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Minnesota
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Minnesota
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Minnesota
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $27K
New England0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 44s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)New England0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
New England
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
New England
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- New England
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $89K
New Orleans0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 44s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)New Orleans0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
New Orleans
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
New Orleans
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- New Orleans
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $2K
New York G0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 44s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)New York G0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
New York G
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
New York G
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- New York G
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $41K
New York J0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 44s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)New York J0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
New York J
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
New York J
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- New York J
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $4K
Pittsburgh0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 44s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Pittsburgh0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Pittsburgh
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Pittsburgh
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Pittsburgh
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $29K
San Francisco0.8%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 44s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)San Francisco0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
San Francisco
0.8%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
San Francisco
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- San Francisco
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $141K
Seattle0.8%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 44s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Seattle0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Seattle
0.8%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Seattle
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Seattle
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $144K
Tampa Bay0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 44s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Tampa Bay0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Tampa Bay
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Tampa Bay
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tampa Bay
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $86K
Tennessee0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 44s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Tennessee0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Tennessee
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Tennessee
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tennessee
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $7K
Washington0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 44s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Washington0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Washington
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Washington
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Washington
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $60K
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Governing League
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Stays with Las Vegas or Retires
- Chicago
- Dallas
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Maxx Crosby's next team?". Stays with Las Vegas or Retires leads at 66.7%. Next is Chicago at 3.3%. $3.1M has traded across 32 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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