The Prediction Markets

McDonald's Big Mac price in October

Closes
Nov 2, 2026, in 10 days
Traded
$5K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

At least $6.08 86%

Next is At least $6.09 at 81%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
At least $6.08
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least $6.08
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$331
Trade this on Kalshi
At least $6.09
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least $6.09
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least $6.10
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least $6.10
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$723
Trade this on Kalshi
At least $6.11
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least $6.11
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$198
Trade this on Kalshi
At least $6.12
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least $6.12
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$114
Trade this on Kalshi
At least $6.13
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least $6.13
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Kalshi
At least $6.14
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least $6.14
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
At least $6.15
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least $6.15
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Kalshi
At least $6.16
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least $6.16
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$22
Trade this on Kalshi
At least $6.17
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least $6.17
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$239
Trade this on Kalshi
At least $6.18
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least $6.18
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$479
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Spice Data

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • At least $6.08
  • At least $6.09
  • At least $6.10

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "McDonald's Big Mac price in October". At least $6.08 leads at 86%. Next is At least $6.09 at 81%. $5K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 2, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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