The Prediction Markets

McDonald's Corporation global comparable sales growth in Q3 2026

Closes
Mar 4, 2027, in 4 months
Traded
$10K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 0% 81%

Next is Above 0.5% at 72%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 0%
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0%
Last price
81%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 0.5%
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.5%
Last price
72%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1%
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1%
Last price
62%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$102
Trade this on Kalshi
1% to 2%
61.5%
Polymarket 61.5%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 63¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Polymarket
Contract
1% to 2%
Last price
61.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 1.5%
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.5%
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$700
Trade this on Kalshi
2% to 3%
22.2%
Polymarket 22.2%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 34.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $292 (2.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
2% to 3%
Last price
22.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34.3¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$292 (2.92x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 2%
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2%
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.5%
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.5%
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$203
Trade this on Kalshi
0% to 1%
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
0% to 1%
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$369
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 2.5%
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.5%
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 6 more outcomes
Above 3%
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3%
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$59
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4%
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4%
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$136
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.5%
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.5%
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$147
Trade this on Kalshi
3%+
7.1%
Polymarket 7.1%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
3%+
Last price
7.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$180
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 5%
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5%
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
0%
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 7.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
0%
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.1¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,408 (14.1x)
Volume
$391
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fiscal.ai

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 0%
  • Above 0.5%
  • Above 1%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 0% for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "McDonald's Corporation global comparable sales growth in Q3 2026". Above 0% leads at 81%. Next is Above 0.5% at 72%. $10K has traded across 16 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 4, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More economics markets

See all economics markets