The Prediction Markets

MD-04 House election: Glenn Ivey vote percent

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$5K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

At least 82% 91%

Next is At least 84% at 88%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
At least 82%
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 82%
Last price
91%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 84%
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 84%
Last price
88%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 86%
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 86%
Last price
74%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 88%
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 88%
Last price
56%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 90%
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 90%
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 92%
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 92%
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 94%
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 94%
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 96%
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 96%
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 98%
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 98%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: State Board of Elections, Annapolis, MD

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • At least 82%
  • At least 84%
  • At least 86%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "MD-04 House election: Glenn Ivey vote percent". At least 82% leads at 91%. Next is At least 84% at 88%. $5K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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