Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
5k 98.4%
Next is 4.5k at 98.3%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
5k98.4%98.4%97.3¢ bid, 99.5¢ askpolled, 3 min agoNot listed99.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $101 (1.01x)5k98.4%Polymarket 98.4%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 99.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
5k
98.4%
98.4%
97.3¢ bid, 99.5¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
Not listed
99.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
5k
98.4%
Polymarket 98.4%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 99.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 5k
- Last price
- 98.4%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 99.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 97.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
- Volume
- $339K
4.5k98.3%98.3%96.6¢ bid, — askpolled, 3 min agoNot listedNo ask4.5k98.3%Polymarket 98.3%polled, 3 min ago
4.5k
98.3%
98.3%
96.6¢ bid, — ask
polled, 3 min ago
Not listed
No ask
4.5k
98.3%
Polymarket 98.3%polled, 3 min ago
Polymarket
- Contract
- 4.5k
- Last price
- 98.3%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 96.6¢
- Volume
- $5K
4.75k97.5%97.5%95.1¢ bid, 99.8¢ askpolled, 3 min agoNot listed99.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100 (1.00x)4.75k97.5%Polymarket 97.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 99.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
4.75k
97.5%
97.5%
95.1¢ bid, 99.8¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
Not listed
99.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100 (1.00x)
4.75k
97.5%
Polymarket 97.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 99.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 4.75k
- Last price
- 97.5%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 99.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 95.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100 (1.00x)
- Volume
- $65K
5.5k97.3%97.3%94.8¢ bid, 99.7¢ askpolled, 3 min agoNot listed99.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100 (1.00x)5.5k97.3%Polymarket 97.3%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 99.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
5.5k
97.3%
97.3%
94.8¢ bid, 99.7¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
Not listed
99.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100 (1.00x)
5.5k
97.3%
Polymarket 97.3%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 99.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 5.5k
- Last price
- 97.3%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 99.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 94.8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100 (1.00x)
- Volume
- $3K
Above 500097%Not listed97%95¢ bid, 99¢ askpolled, 1 min ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Above 500097%Kalshi 97%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 5000
97%
Not listed
97%
95¢ bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 5000
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 5000
- Last price
- 97%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 95¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
6k88.5%88.5%85¢ bid, 92¢ askpolled, 3 min agoNot listed92¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $109 (1.09x)6k88.5%Polymarket 88.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 92¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
6k
88.5%
88.5%
85¢ bid, 92¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
Not listed
92¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $109 (1.09x)
6k
88.5%
Polymarket 88.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 92¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 6k
- Last price
- 88.5%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 92¢
- Sell Yes
- 85¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $109 (1.09x)
- Volume
- $20K
Above 600086%Not listed86%84¢ bid, 86¢ askpolled, 1 min ago86¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $116 (1.16x)Above 600086%Kalshi 86%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Above 6000
86%
Not listed
86%
84¢ bid, 86¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
86¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Above 6000
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 6000
- Last price
- 86%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 86¢
- Sell Yes
- 84¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $116 (1.16x)
- Volume
- $293K
6.5k82%82%79¢ bid, 85¢ askpolled, 3 min agoNot listed85¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $118 (1.18x)6.5k82%Polymarket 82%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 85¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
6.5k
82%
82%
79¢ bid, 85¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
Not listed
85¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $118 (1.18x)
6.5k
82%
Polymarket 82%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 85¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 6.5k
- Last price
- 82%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 85¢
- Sell Yes
- 79¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $118 (1.18x)
- Volume
- $59K
Above 700070%Not listed70%60¢ bid, 75¢ askpolled, 1 min ago75¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $133 (1.33x)Above 700070%Kalshi 70%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Above 7000
70%
Not listed
70%
60¢ bid, 75¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
75¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Above 7000
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 7000
- Last price
- 70%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 75¢
- Sell Yes
- 60¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $133 (1.33x)
- Volume
- $2K
7k64%64%49¢ bid, 78¢ askpolled, 3 min agoNot listed78¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $128 (1.28x)7k64%Polymarket 64%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 78¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
7k
64%
64%
49¢ bid, 78¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
Not listed
78¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $128 (1.28x)
7k
64%
Polymarket 64%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 78¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 7k
- Last price
- 64%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 78¢
- Sell Yes
- 49¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $128 (1.28x)
- Volume
- $2K
Show 6 more outcomesHide 6 outcomes
Above 800034%Not listed34%33¢ bid, 34¢ askpolled, 1 min ago34¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $294 (2.94x)Above 800034%Kalshi 34%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Above 8000
34%
Not listed
34%
33¢ bid, 34¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
34¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Above 8000
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 8000
- Last price
- 34%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 34¢
- Sell Yes
- 33¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $294 (2.94x)
- Volume
- $176K
Above 900028%Not listed28%12¢ bid, 34¢ askpolled, 1 min ago34¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $294 (2.94x)Above 900028%Kalshi 28%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Above 9000
28%
Not listed
28%
12¢ bid, 34¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
34¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Above 9000
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 9000
- Last price
- 28%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 34¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $294 (2.94x)
- Volume
- $360
7.5k27%27%26¢ bid, 28¢ askpolled, 3 min agoNot listed28¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $357 (3.57x)7.5k27%Polymarket 27%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
7.5k
27%
27%
26¢ bid, 28¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
Not listed
28¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $357 (3.57x)
7.5k
27%
Polymarket 27%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 7.5k
- Last price
- 27%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 28¢
- Sell Yes
- 26¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $357 (3.57x)
- Volume
- $218K
Above 1000010%Not listed10%9¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 1 min ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Above 1000010%Kalshi 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Above 10000
10%
Not listed
10%
9¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Above 10000
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 10000
- Last price
- 10%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $169K
10k7.1%7.1%6.6¢ bid, 7.5¢ askpolled, 3 min agoNot listed7.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)10k7.1%Polymarket 7.1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 7.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)
10k
7.1%
7.1%
6.6¢ bid, 7.5¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
Not listed
7.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)
10k
7.1%
Polymarket 7.1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 7.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 10k
- Last price
- 7.1%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 6.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,333 (13.3x)
- Volume
- $6.5M
12.5k6%6%5.4¢ bid, 6.5¢ askpolled, 3 min agoNot listed6.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)12.5k6%Polymarket 6%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
12.5k
6%
6%
5.4¢ bid, 6.5¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
Not listed
6.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
12.5k
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 12.5k
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 5.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,538 (15.4x)
- Volume
- $359K
Who resolves this market
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 5k
- 4.5k
- 4.75k
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Kalshi
Kalshi doesn’t list 5k for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Measles cases in 2026?". 5k leads at 98.4%. Next is 4.5k at 98.3%. $9.3M has traded across 16 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.
Kalshi event status: open
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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