The Prediction Markets

Measles cases in U.S. by November 30?

Closes
Dec 1, 2026, in 26 days
Traded
$1.2M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
3 h ago
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What the markets expect

5000+ 99.2%

Next is Above 5000 at 99%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
5000+
99.2%
Polymarket 99.2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 99.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
5000+
Last price
99.2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
99.8¢
Sell Yes
98.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$522
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 5000
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 3 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5000
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
5600+
84.5%
Polymarket 84.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
5600+
Last price
84.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$705
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 6000
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6000
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$301K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7000
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7000
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
5800+
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 66¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
5800+
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$163
Trade this on Polymarket
6000+
42%
Polymarket 42%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 73¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
6000+
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$927
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 8000
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 8000
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$183K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 9000
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 9000
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$749
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 10000
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 10000
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$180K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: cdc.gov
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: CDC

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 5000+
  • Above 5000
  • 5600+

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list 5000+ for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Measles cases in U.S. by November 30?". 5000+ leads at 99.2%. Next is Above 5000 at 99%. $1.2M has traded across 10 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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