The Prediction Markets

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$9.3M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

4.5k 98.3%

Next is 5k at 98.2%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
4.5k
98.3%
Polymarket 98.3%polled, 21s ago
Polymarket
Contract
4.5k
Last price
98.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
96.6¢
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
5k
98.2%
Polymarket 98.2%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 99.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
5k
Last price
98.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.5¢
Sell Yes
96.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$339K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 5000
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5000
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
5.5k
96.9%
Polymarket 96.9%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 99.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.5k
Last price
96.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.7¢
Sell Yes
94.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
4.75k
95.7%
Polymarket 95.7%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 99.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.75k
Last price
95.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.8¢
Sell Yes
91.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$65K
Trade this on Polymarket
6k
91%
Polymarket 91%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
6k
Last price
91%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 6000
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6000
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$292K
Trade this on Kalshi
6.5k
83.5%
Polymarket 83.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
6.5k
Last price
83.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$59K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 7000
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7000
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
7k
64%
Polymarket 64%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 78¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Polymarket
Contract
7k
Last price
64%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 6 more outcomes
Above 8000
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 8000
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$176K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 9000
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 9000
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$360
Trade this on Kalshi
7.5k
27%
Polymarket 27%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
7.5k
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$218K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 10000
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 10000
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$169K
Trade this on Kalshi
10k
7.1%
Polymarket 7.1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 7.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
10k
Last price
7.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.5¢
Sell Yes
6.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,333 (13.3x)
Volume
$6.5M
Trade this on Polymarket
12.5k
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
12.5k
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
5.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$359K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: cdc.gov
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: CDC

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 4.5k
  • 5k
  • Above 5000

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list 4.5k for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?". 4.5k leads at 98.3%. Next is 5k at 98.2%. $9.3M has traded across 16 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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