The Prediction Markets

Medvedev vs Bublik

Starts in 8 hKickoff
Traded
$11K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5 88.5%

Next is Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5 at 67.5%. The venues differ most on Medvedev (Polymarket 63.5%, Kalshi 65%), a 1.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5
88.5%
Polymarket 88.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set 1 O/U 8.5
Last price
88.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5
67.5%
Polymarket 67.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Match O/U 21.5
Last price
67.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5
66%
Polymarket 66%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set 1 O/U 9.5
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Medvedev
64.6%
Polymarket 63.5%polled, 5 min agoKalshi 65%polled, just nowBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik
Last price
63.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Daniil Medvedev
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 64¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 64¢.

Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5
59.5%
Polymarket 59.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 61¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set 1 Winner
Last price
59.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$8
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5
58.5%
Polymarket 58.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Match O/U 22.5
Last price
58.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Match O/U 23.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set 2 Winner
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Completed Match
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Completed Match
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set 2 O/U 8.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set 2 O/U 9.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set 2 O/U 10.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5
46%
Polymarket 46%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Game Spread +/-2.5
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5
43%
Polymarket 43%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5
40.5%
Polymarket 40.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set 1 O/U 10.5
Last price
40.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Alexander Bublik
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, just nowBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alexander Bublik
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5
36.5%
Polymarket 36.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5
Last price
36.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$174
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: atptour.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ATP
Show full rule comparison
  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • Trading closes Oct 31, 2026, 1:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 7, 2026, 1:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5
  • Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5
  • Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Medvedev vs Bublik". Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5 leads at 88.5%. Next is Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Bublik Set Handicap +/-1.5 at 67.5%. $11K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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