The Prediction Markets

Melbourne's wettest month of 2026?

Closes
Jan 9, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$37K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
4 min ago
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What the markets expect

October 85.5%

Next is November at 13.8%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

October 85.5%November 13.8%December 0.7%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
October
85.5%
Polymarket 80.5%(85.5% fair)polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 81¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
October
Last price
80.5%
Fair, margin removed
85.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Polymarket
November
13.8%
Polymarket 13%(13.8% fair)polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
November
Last price
13%
Fair, margin removed
13.8%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
December
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
December
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
August
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
August
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$988
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: bom.gov.au

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • October
  • November
  • December

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Cover all 4 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Melbourne's wettest month of 2026?". October leads at 85.5%. Next is November at 13.8%. $37K has traded across 4 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 9, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the calendar month of 2026 with the highest total rainfall at Melbourne (Olympic Park), Bureau of Meteorology station number 086338. Monthly rainfall is the total of all daily rainfall observations for that month, each nominally recorded at 9 am local time for the preceding 24 hours, as published in the Bureau of Meteorology's Monthly rainfall table for station 086338. Rainfall is reported in millimetres to 1 decimal place, and that is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Each month will be resolved on the figure as first published. Revisions issued after first publication will not be considered. The totals already published for January through September 2026 are final for the purposes of this market, and August, at 66.0 mm, is the highest of them, so only the four listed months can finish as the wettest month of 2026. If two or more months tie for the highest total, this market will resolve to the earliest of the tied months. The resolution source for this market is the Bureau of Meteorology Monthly rainfall table for Melbourne (Olympic Park), available here: http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_nccObsCode=139&p_display_type=dataFile&p_stn_num=086338. If the figure for December 2026 is not available by January 8, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open for a period of up to three (3) calendar days (ET) to allow the figure to be published. If no figure is published within that period, the December market will resolve to "No", and this market will resolve according to the month with the highest published total among August, October and November.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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