The Prediction Markets

Memphis vs Golden State: Winning Margin

Closes
Oct 26, 2026, in 1 day
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Memphis wins by 1-5 points 39%

Next is Golden State wins by 21+ points at 38%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Memphis wins by 1-5 points
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Memphis wins by 1-5 points
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$278
Trade this on Kalshi
Golden State wins by 21+ points
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Golden State wins by 21+ points
Last price
38%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Memphis wins by 21+ points
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Memphis wins by 21+ points
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Golden State wins by 6-10 points
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Golden State wins by 6-10 points
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$445
Trade this on Kalshi
Memphis wins by 6-10 points
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Memphis wins by 6-10 points
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$278
Trade this on Kalshi
Golden State wins by 11-20 points
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Golden State wins by 11-20 points
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$46
Trade this on Kalshi
Memphis wins by 11-20 points
11.5%
Kalshi 11.5%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Memphis wins by 11-20 points
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Golden State wins by 1-5 points
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Golden State wins by 1-5 points
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$174
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Governing League, ESPN

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Memphis wins by 1-5 points
  • Golden State wins by 21+ points
  • Memphis wins by 21+ points

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

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Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Memphis vs Golden State: Winning Margin". Memphis wins by 1-5 points leads at 39%. Next is Golden State wins by 21+ points at 38%. $1K has traded across 8 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 26, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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