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Best ask
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What the markets expect
Gabriel Medina 95%
Next is Yago Dora at 95%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Gabriel Medina95%95%3¢ bid, 95¢ askpolled, just now95¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $105 (1.05x)Gabriel Medina95%Kalshi 95%polled, just nowBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Gabriel Medina
95%
95%
3¢ bid, 95¢ ask
polled, just now
95¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Gabriel Medina
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, just nowBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Gabriel Medina
- Last price
- 95%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 95¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $105 (1.05x)
- Volume
- $1
Yago Dora95%95%11¢ bid, 95¢ askpolled, just now95¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $105 (1.05x)Yago Dora95%Kalshi 95%polled, just nowBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Yago Dora
95%
95%
11¢ bid, 95¢ ask
polled, just now
95¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Yago Dora
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, just nowBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Yago Dora
- Last price
- 95%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 95¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $105 (1.05x)
- Volume
- $32
Griffin Colapinto45%45%3¢ bid, 45¢ askpolled, just now45¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $222 (2.22x)Griffin Colapinto45%Kalshi 45%polled, just nowBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Griffin Colapinto
45%
45%
3¢ bid, 45¢ ask
polled, just now
45¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Griffin Colapinto
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, just nowBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Griffin Colapinto
- Last price
- 45%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 45¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $222 (2.22x)
- Volume
- $1
Cole Houshmand2%2%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, just now2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Cole Houshmand2%Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Cole Houshmand
2%
2%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, just now
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Cole Houshmand
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Cole Houshmand
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $188
Connor O'Leary2%2%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, just now2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Connor O'Leary2%Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Connor O'Leary
2%
2%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, just now
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Connor O'Leary
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Connor O'Leary
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $395
Ethan Ewing2%2%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, just now2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Ethan Ewing2%Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Ethan Ewing
2%
2%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, just now
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Ethan Ewing
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ethan Ewing
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $0
Filipe Toledo2%2%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, just now2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Filipe Toledo2%Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Filipe Toledo
2%
2%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, just now
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Filipe Toledo
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Filipe Toledo
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $420
Leonardo Fioravanti2%2%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, just now2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Leonardo Fioravanti2%Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Leonardo Fioravanti
2%
2%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, just now
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Leonardo Fioravanti
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Leonardo Fioravanti
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $163
Miguel Pupo2%2%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, just now2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Miguel Pupo2%Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Miguel Pupo
2%
2%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, just now
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Miguel Pupo
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Miguel Pupo
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $286
Italo Ferreira1%1%— bid, 60¢ askpolled, just now60¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $167 (1.67x)Italo Ferreira1%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Italo Ferreira
1%
1%
— bid, 60¢ ask
polled, just now
60¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Italo Ferreira
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Italo Ferreira
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 60¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $167 (1.67x)
- Volume
- $156
Show 14 more outcomesHide 14 outcomes
Jake Marshall1%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Jake Marshall1%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Jake Marshall
1%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Jake Marshall
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jake Marshall
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $11
Callum Robson0.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Callum Robson0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Callum Robson
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Callum Robson
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Callum Robson
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Frederico Morais0.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Frederico Morais0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Frederico Morais
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Frederico Morais
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Frederico Morais
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
George Pittar0.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)George Pittar0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
George Pittar
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
George Pittar
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- George Pittar
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Guilherme Ribeiro0.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Guilherme Ribeiro0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Guilherme Ribeiro
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Guilherme Ribeiro
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Guilherme Ribeiro
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Jack Robinson0.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Jack Robinson0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Jack Robinson
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Jack Robinson
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jack Robinson
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Joao Chianca0.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Joao Chianca0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Joao Chianca
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Joao Chianca
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Joao Chianca
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Kanoa Igarashi0.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Kanoa Igarashi0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kanoa Igarashi
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kanoa Igarashi
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kanoa Igarashi
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Kauli Vaast0.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Kauli Vaast0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kauli Vaast
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kauli Vaast
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kauli Vaast
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Liam O'Brien0.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Liam O'Brien0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Liam O'Brien
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Liam O'Brien
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Liam O'Brien
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Marco Mignot0.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Marco Mignot0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Marco Mignot
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Marco Mignot
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Marco Mignot
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Morgan Cibilic0.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Morgan Cibilic0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Morgan Cibilic
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Morgan Cibilic
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Morgan Cibilic
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Samuel Pupo0.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Samuel Pupo0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Samuel Pupo
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Samuel Pupo
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Samuel Pupo
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Seth Moniz0.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, just now1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Seth Moniz0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Seth Moniz
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Seth Moniz
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Seth Moniz
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: World Surf League
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Gabriel Medina
- Yago Dora
- Griffin Colapinto
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Men's MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal Winner". Gabriel Medina leads at 95%. Next is Yago Dora at 95%. $2K has traded across 24 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 23, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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