The Prediction Markets

MercadoLibre items sold in 2026

Closes
Mar 31, 2028, in 18 months
Traded
$95K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 3 billion 96%

Next is Above 3.1 billion at 96%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 3 billion
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3 billion
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
96¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.1 billion
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.1 billion
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
96¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.05 billion
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.05 billion
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
96¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.15 billion
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.15 billion
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
96¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.2 billion
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.2 billion
Last price
94%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.25 billion
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.25 billion
Last price
92%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.3 billion
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.3 billion
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.35 billion
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.35 billion
Last price
59%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.4 billion
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.4 billion
Last price
47%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.45 billion
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.45 billion
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 5 more outcomes
Above 3.5 billion
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.5 billion
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.55 billion
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.55 billion
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.6 billion
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.6 billion
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.65 billion
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.65 billion
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.7 billion
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.7 billion
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fiscal.ai

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 3 billion
  • Above 3.1 billion
  • Above 3.05 billion

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "MercadoLibre items sold in 2026". Above 3 billion leads at 96%. Next is Above 3.1 billion at 96%. $95K has traded across 15 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 31, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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