The Prediction Markets

Mexico Annual Inflation 2026

Closes
Jan 9, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$100K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

3.50% to 3.99% 63.4%

Next is 4.00% to 4.49% at 18.2%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

3.50% to 3.99% 63.4%4.00% to 4.49% 18.2%3.00% to 3.49% 12%4.50% to 4.99% 2.7%5.00% to 5.49% 1.9%3 others 1.8%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
3.50% to 3.99%
63.4%
Polymarket 61.1%(63.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 63.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $158 (1.58x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.50% to 3.99%
Last price
61.1%
Fair, margin removed
63.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
63.1¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$158 (1.58x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
4.00% to 4.49%
18.2%
Polymarket 17.5%(18.2% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.00% to 4.49%
Last price
17.5%
Fair, margin removed
18.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.00% to 3.49%
12%
Polymarket 11.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $862 (8.62x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.00% to 3.49%
Last price
11.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11.6¢
Sell Yes
11.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$862 (8.62x)
Volume
$38K
Trade this on Polymarket
4.50% to 4.99%
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.50% to 4.99%
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,326 (23.3x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
5.00% to 5.49%
1.9%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.00% to 5.49%
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.50% to 2.99%
1.4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.50% to 2.99%
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.50%
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.50%
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
5.50%+
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.50%+
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: en.www.inegi.org.mx

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 3.50% to 3.99%
  • 4.00% to 4.49%
  • 3.00% to 3.49%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Mexico Annual Inflation 2026". 3.50% to 3.99% leads at 63.4%. Next is 4.00% to 4.49% at 18.2%. $100K has traded across 8 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 9, 2027.

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month. The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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