The Prediction Markets

Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?

Closes
Oct 30, 2026, in 6 days
Traded
$498K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above $1.6 trillion 99%

Next is Above $1.7 trillion at 99%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above $1.6 trillion
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 43s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above $1.6 trillion
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $1.7 trillion
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 43s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above $1.7 trillion
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 0.0%
97.5%
Kalshi 97.5%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.0%
Last price
97.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 0.5%
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.5%
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
94¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.0%
96.5%
Kalshi 96.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.0%
Last price
96.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.5%
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.5%
Last price
96%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.0%
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.0%
Last price
96%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.5%
95.5%
Kalshi 95.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.5%
Last price
95.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.0%
95.5%
Kalshi 95.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.0%
Last price
95.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $1.8 trillion
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 43s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above $1.8 trillion
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Volume
$424
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 37 more outcomes
Above 3.5%
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.5%
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.0%
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.0%
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $1.9 trillion
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $1.9 trillion
Last price
92%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$14
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.5%
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.5%
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$490
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.0%
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.0%
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$37
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $2.0 trillion
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.0 trillion
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$342
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.5%
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.5%
Last price
79%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$130
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $2.1 trillion
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.1 trillion
Last price
55%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
2.1% to 2.5%
50.1%
Kalshi 50.1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 65.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
2.1% to 2.5%
Last price
50.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65.9¢
Sell Yes
50.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$39K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6.0%
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.0%
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$913
Trade this on Kalshi
3.0-3.5%
46.2%
Polymarket 46.2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 52.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $190 (1.90x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.0-3.5%
Last price
46.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52.6¢
Sell Yes
39.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$190 (1.90x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above $2.2 trillion
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.2 trillion
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$915
Trade this on Kalshi
2.5-3.0%
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.5-3.0%
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.6% to 2.0%
16.1%
Kalshi 16.1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
1.6% to 2.0%
Last price
16.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$41K
Trade this on Kalshi
2.0-2.5%
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.0-2.5%
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.5%+
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 21.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $474 (4.74x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.5%+
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21.1¢
Sell Yes
9.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$474 (4.74x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.6% to 3.0%
14.6%
Kalshi 14.6%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 14.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $685 (6.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
2.6% to 3.0%
Last price
14.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14.6¢
Sell Yes
12.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$685 (6.85x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Kalshi
1.5-2.0%
11.3%
Polymarket 11.3%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 14.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $690 (6.90x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.5-2.0%
Last price
11.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14.5¢
Sell Yes
8.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$690 (6.90x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above $2.4 trillion
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.4 trillion
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$33
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $2.3 trillion
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.3 trillion
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Kalshi
3.1% to 3.5%
4.9%
Kalshi 4.9%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
3.1% to 3.5%
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$47K
Trade this on Kalshi
1.1% to 1.5%
3.1%
Kalshi 3.1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 4.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
1.1% to 1.5%
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $2.6 trillion
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.6 trillion
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$334
Trade this on Kalshi
0.5%
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.5%
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above $2.7 trillion
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.7 trillion
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
1.0-1.5%
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.0-1.5%
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
0.5-1.0%
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.5-1.0%
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
0.1% to 0.5%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
0.1% to 0.5%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $2.5 trillion
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.5 trillion
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$483
Trade this on Kalshi
0.0% or Below
0.9%
Kalshi 0.9%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Kalshi
Contract
0.0% or Below
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$49K
Trade this on Kalshi
4.1% to 4.5%
0.9%
Kalshi 0.9%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.1% to 4.5%
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$44K
Trade this on Kalshi
0.6% to 1.0%
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Kalshi
Contract
0.6% to 1.0%
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Kalshi
4.6% to 5.0%
0.4%
Kalshi 0.4%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.6% to 5.0%
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$33K
Trade this on Kalshi
6.1% or Above
0.4%
Kalshi 0.4%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Kalshi
Contract
6.1% or Above
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
3.6% to 4.0%
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
3.6% to 4.0%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$36K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.1% to 5.5%
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.1% to 5.5%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.6% to 6.0%
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.6% to 6.0%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: en.www.inegi.org.mx
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Trading Economics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above $1.6 trillion
  • Above $1.7 trillion
  • Above 0.0%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above $1.6 trillion for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?". Above $1.6 trillion leads at 99%. Next is Above $1.7 trillion at 99%. $498K has traded across 47 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 30, 2026.

This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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