The Prediction Markets

Mexico Legislative Election Winner

Starts in 226 daysKickoff
Traded
$115K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Morena 89.7%

Next is PAN at 4.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Morena 89.7%PAN 4.5%MC 3%PRI 2.6%PT 0.1%PVEM 0.1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Morena
89.7%
Polymarket 87.3%(89.7% fair)polled, 56s agoBest Yes 89.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
Morena
Last price
87.3%
Fair, margin removed
89.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89.1¢
Sell Yes
85.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$58K
Trade this on Polymarket
PAN
4.5%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
PAN
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Polymarket
MC
3%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 3.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
MC
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.7¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,703 (27.0x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
PRI
2.6%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 3.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
PRI
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.7¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,703 (27.0x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
PT
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
PT
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
PVEM
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
PVEM
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: ine.mx

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Morena
  • PAN
  • MC

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Mexico Legislative Election Winner". Morena leads at 89.7%. Next is PAN at 4.5%. $115K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jun 7, 2027.

A legislative election is scheduled to be held in Mexico on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados) as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes in this election. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Mexican Government, specifically the National Electoral Institute (https://ine.mx/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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