The Prediction Markets

Mexico Nominal GDP in 2026

Closes
Apr 1, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$67K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above $1.6 trillion 99%

Next is Above $1.7 trillion at 99%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above $1.6 trillion
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 36s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above $1.6 trillion
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $1.7 trillion
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 36s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above $1.7 trillion
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $1.8 trillion
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 36s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above $1.8 trillion
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Volume
$424
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $1.9 trillion
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $1.9 trillion
Last price
92%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$14
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $2.0 trillion
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.0 trillion
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$342
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $2.1 trillion
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.1 trillion
Last price
55%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
3.0-3.5%
44.4%
Polymarket 44.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 45.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $220 (2.20x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.0-3.5%
Last price
44.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
45.4¢
Sell Yes
43.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$220 (2.20x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above $2.2 trillion
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.2 trillion
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$915
Trade this on Kalshi
2.5-3.0%
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.5-3.0%
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.0-2.5%
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.0-2.5%
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 10 more outcomes
1.5-2.0%
11.3%
Polymarket 11.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $699 (6.99x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.5-2.0%
Last price
11.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14.3¢
Sell Yes
8.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$699 (6.99x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.5%+
10%
Polymarket 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $826 (8.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.5%+
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12.1¢
Sell Yes
7.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$826 (8.26x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above $2.4 trillion
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.4 trillion
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$33
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $2.3 trillion
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.3 trillion
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $2.6 trillion
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.6 trillion
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$334
Trade this on Kalshi
0.5%
2.8%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.5%
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.4¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,273 (22.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above $2.7 trillion
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.7 trillion
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
1.0-1.5%
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.0-1.5%
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above $2.5 trillion
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.5 trillion
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$483
Trade this on Kalshi
0.5-1.0%
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.5-1.0%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: en.www.inegi.org.mx
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Trading Economics

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above $1.6 trillion
  • Above $1.7 trillion
  • Above $1.8 trillion

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above $1.6 trillion for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Mexico Nominal GDP in 2026". Above $1.6 trillion leads at 99%. Next is Above $1.7 trillion at 99%. $67K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 1, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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