The Prediction Markets

MI-13 House election: Donavan McKinney vote percent

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$4K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
5 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

At least 66% 94%

Next is At least 68% at 89%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
At least 66%
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 66%
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 68%
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 68%
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 70%
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 70%
Last price
79%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 72%
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 72%
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 74%
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 74%
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$205
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 76%
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 76%
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 78%
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 78%
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 80%
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 80%
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 82%
6.5%
Kalshi 6.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 82%
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Elections Bureau, Office of the Secretary of State, Lansing, MI

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • At least 66%
  • At least 68%
  • At least 70%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "MI-13 House election: Donavan McKinney vote percent". At least 66% leads at 94%. Next is At least 68% at 89%. $4K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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