The Prediction Markets

Miami Grand Prix: Driver Winner

FinalKickoff
Traded
$65K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on May 10, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 176 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
George Russell
34.8%
Polymarket 37%(34.8% fair)polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
George Russell
Last price
37%
Fair, margin removed
34.8%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kimi Antonelli
31.5%
Polymarket 33.5%(31.5% fair)polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kimi Antonelli
Last price
33.5%
Fair, margin removed
31.5%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Oscar Piastri
8.9%
Polymarket 9.5%(8.9% fair)polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Oscar Piastri
Last price
9.5%
Fair, margin removed
8.9%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lando Norris
7.5%
Polymarket 8%polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lando Norris
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Charles Leclerc
7.1%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Charles Leclerc
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lewis Hamilton
5.2%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lewis Hamilton
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Max Verstappen
2.8%
Polymarket 3%polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 3.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Max Verstappen
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
3.3¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,030 (30.3x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Isack Hadjar
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Isack Hadjar
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Alexander Albon
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alexander Albon
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Arvid Lindblad
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Arvid Lindblad
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 12 more outcomes
Carlos Sainz Jr.
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Carlos Sainz Jr.
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Esteban Ocon
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Esteban Ocon
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Fernando Alonso
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fernando Alonso
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Franco Colapinto
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Franco Colapinto
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Gabriel Bortoleto
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gabriel Bortoleto
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lance Stroll
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lance Stroll
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Liam Lawson
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Liam Lawson
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Nico Hulkenberg
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nico Hulkenberg
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Oliver Bearman
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Oliver Bearman
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Pierre Gasly
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pierre Gasly
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Sergio Perez
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sergio Perez
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Valtteri Bottas
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Valtteri Bottas
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: formula1.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • George Russell
  • Kimi Antonelli
  • Oscar Piastri

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Miami Grand Prix: Driver Winner". George Russell last traded at 34.8%. Next is Kimi Antonelli at 31.5%. $65K has traded across 22 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on May 10, 2026.

This is a polymarket on the winner of the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix, scheduled for May 3, 2026. If the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after May 10, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially listed in first place in the Final Classification published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race. The Final Classification is typically released 30-60 minutes after the race ends and includes any applied time penalties and official adjustments. Disqualifications or changes made after the publication of the Final Classification will not affect market resolution. The timing of the podium ceremony does not determine the result for this market — only the FIA's published classification will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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