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What the markets expect
Over 204.5 points 95%
Next is Over 206.5 points at 92.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Over 204.5 points95%95%93¢ bid, 95¢ askpolled, 46s ago95¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $105 (1.05x)Over 204.5 points95%Kalshi 95%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Over 204.5 points
95%
95%
93¢ bid, 95¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
95¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Over 204.5 points
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Over 204.5 points
- Last price
- 95%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 95¢
- Sell Yes
- 93¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $105 (1.05x)
- Volume
- $342
Over 206.5 points92.5%92.5%91¢ bid, 94¢ askpolled, 46s ago94¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $106 (1.06x)Over 206.5 points92.5%Kalshi 92.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Over 206.5 points
92.5%
92.5%
91¢ bid, 94¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
94¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Over 206.5 points
92.5%
Kalshi 92.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Over 206.5 points
- Last price
- 92.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 94¢
- Sell Yes
- 91¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $106 (1.06x)
Over 208.5 points91%91%89¢ bid, 93¢ askpolled, 46s ago93¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $108 (1.08x)Over 208.5 points91%Kalshi 91%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Over 208.5 points
91%
91%
89¢ bid, 93¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
93¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Over 208.5 points
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Over 208.5 points
- Last price
- 91%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 93¢
- Sell Yes
- 89¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $108 (1.08x)
Over 210.5 points89%89%87¢ bid, 91¢ askpolled, 46s ago91¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $110 (1.10x)Over 210.5 points89%Kalshi 89%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Over 210.5 points
89%
89%
87¢ bid, 91¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
91¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Over 210.5 points
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Over 210.5 points
- Last price
- 89%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 91¢
- Sell Yes
- 87¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $110 (1.10x)
Over 212.5 points86.5%86.5%85¢ bid, 88¢ askpolled, 46s ago88¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $114 (1.14x)Over 212.5 points86.5%Kalshi 86.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Over 212.5 points
86.5%
86.5%
85¢ bid, 88¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
88¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Over 212.5 points
86.5%
Kalshi 86.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Over 212.5 points
- Last price
- 86.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 88¢
- Sell Yes
- 85¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $114 (1.14x)
Over 214.5 points85%85%82¢ bid, 85¢ askpolled, 46s ago85¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $118 (1.18x)Over 214.5 points85%Kalshi 85%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Over 214.5 points
85%
85%
82¢ bid, 85¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
85¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Over 214.5 points
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Over 214.5 points
- Last price
- 85%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 85¢
- Sell Yes
- 82¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $118 (1.18x)
Over 216.5 points79.5%79.5%77¢ bid, 82¢ askpolled, 46s ago82¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $122 (1.22x)Over 216.5 points79.5%Kalshi 79.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Over 216.5 points
79.5%
79.5%
77¢ bid, 82¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
82¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Over 216.5 points
79.5%
Kalshi 79.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Over 216.5 points
- Last price
- 79.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 82¢
- Sell Yes
- 77¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $122 (1.22x)
Over 218.5 points76.5%76.5%74¢ bid, 79¢ askpolled, 46s ago79¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $127 (1.27x)Over 218.5 points76.5%Kalshi 76.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Over 218.5 points
76.5%
76.5%
74¢ bid, 79¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
79¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Over 218.5 points
76.5%
Kalshi 76.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Over 218.5 points
- Last price
- 76.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 79¢
- Sell Yes
- 74¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $127 (1.27x)
Over 220.5 points71%71%71¢ bid, 74¢ askpolled, 46s ago74¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $135 (1.35x)Over 220.5 points71%Kalshi 71%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Over 220.5 points
71%
71%
71¢ bid, 74¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
74¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Over 220.5 points
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Over 220.5 points
- Last price
- 71%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 74¢
- Sell Yes
- 71¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $135 (1.35x)
Over 222.5 points68.5%68.5%67¢ bid, 70¢ askpolled, 46s ago70¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $143 (1.43x)Over 222.5 points68.5%Kalshi 68.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Over 222.5 points
68.5%
68.5%
67¢ bid, 70¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
70¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Over 222.5 points
68.5%
Kalshi 68.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Over 222.5 points
- Last price
- 68.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 70¢
- Sell Yes
- 67¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $143 (1.43x)
Show 19 more outcomesHide 19 outcomes
Over 224.5 points65%65%64¢ bid, 66¢ askpolled, 46s ago66¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $152 (1.52x)Over 224.5 points65%Kalshi 65%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Over 224.5 points
65%
65%
64¢ bid, 66¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
66¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Over 224.5 points
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Over 224.5 points
- Last price
- 65%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 66¢
- Sell Yes
- 64¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $152 (1.52x)
Over 226.5 points60.5%60.5%59¢ bid, 62¢ askpolled, 46s ago62¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $161 (1.61x)Over 226.5 points60.5%Kalshi 60.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Over 226.5 points
60.5%
60.5%
59¢ bid, 62¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
62¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Over 226.5 points
60.5%
Kalshi 60.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Over 226.5 points
- Last price
- 60.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 62¢
- Sell Yes
- 59¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $161 (1.61x)
Over 228.5 points56%56%55¢ bid, 56¢ askpolled, 46s ago56¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $179 (1.79x)Over 228.5 points56%Kalshi 56%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Over 228.5 points
56%
56%
55¢ bid, 56¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
56¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Over 228.5 points
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Over 228.5 points
- Last price
- 56%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 56¢
- Sell Yes
- 55¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $179 (1.79x)
- Volume
- $7
Over 230.5 points50%50%50¢ bid, 52¢ askpolled, 46s ago52¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $192 (1.92x)Over 230.5 points50%Kalshi 50%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Over 230.5 points
50%
50%
50¢ bid, 52¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
52¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Over 230.5 points
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Over 230.5 points
- Last price
- 50%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 52¢
- Sell Yes
- 50¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $192 (1.92x)
Over 232.5 points47%47%46¢ bid, 47¢ askpolled, 46s ago47¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $213 (2.13x)Over 232.5 points47%Kalshi 47%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Over 232.5 points
47%
47%
46¢ bid, 47¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
47¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Over 232.5 points
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Over 232.5 points
- Last price
- 47%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 47¢
- Sell Yes
- 46¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $213 (2.13x)
- Volume
- $915
Over 234.5 points44.5%44.5%44¢ bid, 45¢ askpolled, 46s ago45¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $222 (2.22x)Over 234.5 points44.5%Kalshi 44.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Over 234.5 points
44.5%
44.5%
44¢ bid, 45¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
45¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Over 234.5 points
44.5%
Kalshi 44.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Over 234.5 points
- Last price
- 44.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 45¢
- Sell Yes
- 44¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $222 (2.22x)
Over 236.5 points38.5%38.5%37¢ bid, 40¢ askpolled, 46s ago40¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $250 (2.50x)Over 236.5 points38.5%Kalshi 38.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Over 236.5 points
38.5%
38.5%
37¢ bid, 40¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
40¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Over 236.5 points
38.5%
Kalshi 38.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Over 236.5 points
- Last price
- 38.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 40¢
- Sell Yes
- 37¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $250 (2.50x)
Over 238.5 points35.5%35.5%34¢ bid, 37¢ askpolled, 46s ago37¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $270 (2.70x)Over 238.5 points35.5%Kalshi 35.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Over 238.5 points
35.5%
35.5%
34¢ bid, 37¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
37¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Over 238.5 points
35.5%
Kalshi 35.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Over 238.5 points
- Last price
- 35.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 37¢
- Sell Yes
- 34¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $270 (2.70x)
Over 240.5 points29%29%29¢ bid, 30¢ askpolled, 46s ago30¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $333 (3.33x)Over 240.5 points29%Kalshi 29%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Over 240.5 points
29%
29%
29¢ bid, 30¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
30¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Over 240.5 points
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Over 240.5 points
- Last price
- 29%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 30¢
- Sell Yes
- 29¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $333 (3.33x)
Over 242.5 points28%28%26¢ bid, 30¢ askpolled, 46s ago30¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $333 (3.33x)Over 242.5 points28%Kalshi 28%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Over 242.5 points
28%
28%
26¢ bid, 30¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
30¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Over 242.5 points
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Over 242.5 points
- Last price
- 28%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 30¢
- Sell Yes
- 26¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $333 (3.33x)
Over 244.5 points24.5%24.5%22¢ bid, 27¢ askpolled, 46s ago27¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $370 (3.70x)Over 244.5 points24.5%Kalshi 24.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Over 244.5 points
24.5%
24.5%
22¢ bid, 27¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
27¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Over 244.5 points
24.5%
Kalshi 24.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Over 244.5 points
- Last price
- 24.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 27¢
- Sell Yes
- 22¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $370 (3.70x)
Over 246.5 points19%19%19¢ bid, 23¢ askpolled, 46s ago23¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $435 (4.35x)Over 246.5 points19%Kalshi 19%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Over 246.5 points
19%
19%
19¢ bid, 23¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
23¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Over 246.5 points
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Over 246.5 points
- Last price
- 19%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 23¢
- Sell Yes
- 19¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $435 (4.35x)
Over 248.5 points18.5%18.5%16¢ bid, 21¢ askpolled, 46s ago21¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $476 (4.76x)Over 248.5 points18.5%Kalshi 18.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Over 248.5 points
18.5%
18.5%
16¢ bid, 21¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
21¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Over 248.5 points
18.5%
Kalshi 18.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Over 248.5 points
- Last price
- 18.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 21¢
- Sell Yes
- 16¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $476 (4.76x)
Over 250.5 points15%15%13¢ bid, 17¢ askpolled, 46s ago17¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $588 (5.88x)Over 250.5 points15%Kalshi 15%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Over 250.5 points
15%
15%
13¢ bid, 17¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
17¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Over 250.5 points
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Over 250.5 points
- Last price
- 15%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 17¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $588 (5.88x)
Over 252.5 points12%12%12¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 46s ago15¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $667 (6.67x)Over 252.5 points12%Kalshi 12%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Over 252.5 points
12%
12%
12¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
15¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Over 252.5 points
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Over 252.5 points
- Last price
- 12%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
Over 254.5 points12%12%10¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 46s ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Over 254.5 points12%Kalshi 12%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Over 254.5 points
12%
12%
10¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Over 254.5 points
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Over 254.5 points
- Last price
- 12%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $200
Over 256.5 points8.5%8.5%6¢ bid, 11¢ askpolled, 46s ago11¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $909 (9.09x)Over 256.5 points8.5%Kalshi 8.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Over 256.5 points
8.5%
8.5%
6¢ bid, 11¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
11¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Over 256.5 points
8.5%
Kalshi 8.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Over 256.5 points
- Last price
- 8.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
Over 258.5 points8%8%6¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 46s ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Over 258.5 points8%Kalshi 8%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Over 258.5 points
8%
8%
6¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Over 258.5 points
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Over 258.5 points
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
Over 260.5 points6%6%6¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 46s ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Over 260.5 points6%Kalshi 6%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Over 260.5 points
6%
6%
6¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Over 260.5 points
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Over 260.5 points
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $1
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Governing League, ESPN
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Over 204.5 points
- Over 206.5 points
- Over 208.5 points
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Miami vs Charlotte: Total Points". Over 204.5 points leads at 95%. Next is Over 206.5 points at 92.5%. $1K has traded across 29 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 26, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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