The Prediction Markets

Michael Carrick out as Manchester United manager by...?

Closes
Nov 1, 2026, in 9 days
Traded
$10K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
2 min ago
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What the markets expect

Apr 30, 2027 92.5%

Next is Jun 30, 2027 at 92.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Apr 30, 2027
92.5%
Polymarket 92.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Apr 30, 2027
Last price
92.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jun 30, 2027
92.5%
Polymarket 92.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jun 30, 2027
Last price
92.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Feb 28, 2027
74.9%
Polymarket 74.9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 92.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Feb 28, 2027
Last price
74.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
92.2¢
Sell Yes
57.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dec 31, 2026
71.5%
Polymarket 71.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 80¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dec 31, 2026
Last price
71.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Oct 31, 2026
57.3%
Polymarket 57.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Oct 31, 2026
Last price
57.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
39.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Apr 30, 2027
  • Jun 30, 2027
  • Feb 28, 2027

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Michael Carrick out as Manchester United manager by...?". Apr 30, 2027 leads at 92.5%. Next is Jun 30, 2027 at 92.5%. $10K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Michael Carrick ceases to be the manager of Manchester United on or before the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Ceasing to be manager includes being sacked or dismissed, resigning, departing by mutual agreement, or leaving for another role. A temporary absence for illness, compassionate leave or suspension does not count while Carrick remains under contract as manager. The date on which Carrick ceases to be manager is the date of the official announcement by Manchester United, or the effective date of departure stated in that announcement, whichever is earlier. If Michael Carrick is still Manchester United manager after June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, all markets in this event will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official announcements from Manchester United. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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