The Prediction Markets

Michigan Governor General Election: voter turnout

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 3.80M 86%

Next is Above 4.00M at 79%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 3.80M
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.80M
Last price
86%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$61
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.00M
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.00M
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.20M
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.20M
Last price
78%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$257
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.4M
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.4M
Last price
62%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$406
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.6M
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.6M
Last price
58%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$498
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.8M
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.8M
Last price
44%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.1M
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.1M
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$385
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.3M
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.3M
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$584
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.5M
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.5M
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.7M
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.7M
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Michigan Department of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 3.80M
  • Above 4.00M
  • Above 4.20M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Michigan Governor General Election: voter turnout". Above 3.80M leads at 86%. Next is Above 4.00M at 79%. $2K has traded across 10 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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