The Prediction Markets

Michigan Governor margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$25K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
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What the markets expect

Democrats, 2+ pts 90.3%

Next is Democrats, 5+ pts at 77.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Democrats, 2+ pts
90.3%
Kalshi 90.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 90.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats, 2+ pts
Last price
90.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
90.3¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrats, 5+ pts
77.5%
Kalshi 77.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats, 5+ pts
Last price
77.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrats, 8+ pts
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats, 8+ pts
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$355
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrats, 11+ pts
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats, 11+ pts
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrats, 14+ pts
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats, 14+ pts
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Benson 9-12%
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Benson 9-12%
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Benson 6-9%
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Benson 6-9%
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Benson 12-15%
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Benson 12-15%
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrats, 17+ pts
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats, 17+ pts
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$190
Trade this on Kalshi
Benson 18%+
10.1%
Polymarket 10.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Benson 18%+
Last price
10.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
9.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$873
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Benson 15-18%
9.6%
Polymarket 9.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 10.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $980 (9.80x)
Polymarket
Contract
Benson 15-18%
Last price
9.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
10.2¢
Sell Yes
8.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$980 (9.80x)
Volume
$648
Trade this on Polymarket
Benson 3-6%
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Benson 3-6%
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
James 0-3%
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 10.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $962 (9.62x)
Polymarket
Contract
James 0-3%
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
10.4¢
Sell Yes
6.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$962 (9.62x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrats, 20+ pts
5.1%
Kalshi 5.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrats, 20+ pts
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Benson 0-3%
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Benson 0-3%
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
James 3-6%
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
James 3-6%
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$616
Trade this on Polymarket
James 6%+
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
James 6%+
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$579
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Michigan Board of State Canvassers

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Democrats, 2+ pts
  • Democrats, 5+ pts
  • Democrats, 8+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Democrats, 2+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Michigan Governor margin of victory". Democrats, 2+ pts leads at 90.3%. Next is Democrats, 5+ pts at 77.5%. $25K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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