The Prediction Markets

Michigan Senate General Election: voter turnout

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$43K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 4.10M 94%

Next is Above 3.80M at 92%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 4.10M
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.10M
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$312
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.80M
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.80M
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$19
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.40M
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.40M
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$953
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.70M
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.70M
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.00M
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.00M
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.30M
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.30M
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
4.6M-4.8M
29.9%
Polymarket 29.9%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 30.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $329 (3.29x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.6M-4.8M
Last price
29.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30.4¢
Sell Yes
29.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$329 (3.29x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 5.60M
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.60M
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.6M+
18.7%
Polymarket 18.7%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 26.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $379 (3.79x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.6M+
Last price
18.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26.4¢
Sell Yes
10.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$379 (3.79x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
4.8M-5M
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.8M-5M
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 10 more outcomes
Above 6.10M
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.10M
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$53
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.90M
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.90M
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
4.2M
13.7%
Polymarket 13.7%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 15.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $633 (6.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.2M
Last price
13.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15.8¢
Sell Yes
11.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$633 (6.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 6.40M
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.40M
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$206
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6.70M
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.70M
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$61
Trade this on Kalshi
5M-5.2M
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 11.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $877 (8.77x)
Polymarket
Contract
5M-5.2M
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11.4¢
Sell Yes
4.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$877 (8.77x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
4.4M-4.6M
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.4M-4.6M
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
5.2M-5.4M
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.2M-5.4M
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.4¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,273 (22.7x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
4.2M-4.4M
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.2M-4.4M
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
5.4M-5.6M
1.8%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.4M-5.6M
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Michigan Department of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 4.10M
  • Above 3.80M
  • Above 4.40M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 4.10M for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Michigan Senate General Election: voter turnout". Above 4.10M leads at 94%. Next is Above 3.80M at 92%. $43K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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