The Prediction Markets

Michigan Senate margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$574K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

El-Sayed, 1+ pts 64%

Next is El-Sayed, 3+ pts at 45%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

3 of 21 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
El-Sayed, 1+ pts
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
El-Sayed, 1+ pts
Last price
64%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$33K
Trade this on Kalshi
El-Sayed, 3+ pts
45%
Kalshi 45%live, just nowBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
El-Sayed, 3+ pts
Price
45%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$159K
Trade this on Kalshi
El-Sayed, 5+ pts
32%
Kalshi 32%live, just nowBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
El-Sayed, 5+ pts
Price
32%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$161K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rogers 0-3%
27%
Polymarket 27%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rogers 0-3%
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Rogers, 1+ pts
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rogers, 1+ pts
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
El-Sayed 0-3%
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
El-Sayed 0-3%
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
El-Sayed 3-6%
20.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
El-Sayed 3-6%
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
El-Sayed, 7+ pts
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
El-Sayed, 7+ pts
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$84K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rogers, 3+ pts
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rogers, 3+ pts
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Kalshi
El-Sayed 6-9%
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
El-Sayed 6-9%
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 11 more outcomes
El-Sayed, 9+ pts
10%
Kalshi 10%live, just nowBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
El-Sayed, 9+ pts
Price
10%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$32K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rogers, 5+ pts
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rogers, 5+ pts
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rogers 3-6%
7.3%
Polymarket 7.3%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 9.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,075 (10.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rogers 3-6%
Last price
7.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.3¢
Sell Yes
5.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,075 (10.8x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
El-Sayed 9-12%
6.9%
Polymarket 6.9%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 7.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
El-Sayed 9-12%
Last price
6.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.8¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,282 (12.8x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
El-Sayed, 13+ pts
6.9%
Kalshi 6.9%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
El-Sayed, 13+ pts
Last price
6.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
3.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
El-Sayed, 15+ pts
5.9%
Kalshi 5.9%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
El-Sayed, 15+ pts
Last price
5.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
3.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
El-Sayed, 11+ pts
5.7%
Kalshi 5.7%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 5.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,754 (17.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
El-Sayed, 11+ pts
Last price
5.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.7¢
Sell Yes
5.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,754 (17.5x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
El-Sayed 12%+
4.7%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
El-Sayed 12%+
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Rogers 9-12%
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rogers 9-12%
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Rogers 6-9%
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rogers 6-9%
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Rogers 12%+
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rogers 12%+
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • El-Sayed, 1+ pts
  • El-Sayed, 3+ pts
  • El-Sayed, 5+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list El-Sayed, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Michigan Senate margin of victory". El-Sayed, 1+ pts leads at 64%. Next is El-Sayed, 3+ pts at 45%. $574K has traded across 21 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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