The Prediction Markets

Michigan Senate: which counties will Abdul El-Sayed win?

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$19K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Kent 90%

Next is Oakland at 90%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Kent
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kent
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Oakland
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oakland
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Genesee
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Genesee
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Grand Traverse
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Grand Traverse
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Muskegon
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Muskegon
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$653
Trade this on Kalshi
Saginaw
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Saginaw
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Eaton
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Eaton
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$622
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Michigan Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Kent
  • Oakland
  • Genesee

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Michigan Senate: which counties will Abdul El-Sayed win?". Kent leads at 90%. Next is Oakland at 90%. $19K has traded across 7 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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