The Prediction Markets

Michigan's 10th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$40K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Hines, 2+ pts 64%

Next is Hines, 5+ pts at 43%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Hines, 2+ pts
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hines, 2+ pts
Last price
64%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hines, 5+ pts
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hines, 5+ pts
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$580
Trade this on Kalshi
Bouchard, 1+ pts
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bouchard, 1+ pts
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hines, 8+ pts
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hines, 8+ pts
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 3-6%
24%
Polymarket 24%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 3-6%
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bouchard, 4+ pts
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bouchard, 4+ pts
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 0-3%
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-3%
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-3%
20.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-3%
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hines, 11+ pts
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hines, 11+ pts
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Hines, 14+ pts
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hines, 14+ pts
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
4.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$500
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 10 more outcomes
Republican 6%+
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 6%+
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 9-12%
10.9%
Polymarket 10.9%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 9-12%
Last price
10.9%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$367
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 6-9%
10.2%
Polymarket 10.2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 19.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $510 (5.10x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 6-9%
Last price
10.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
19.6¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$510 (5.10x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bouchard, 7+ pts
9.9%
Kalshi 9.9%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bouchard, 7+ pts
Last price
9.9%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
6.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bouchard, 10+ pts
9.9%
Kalshi 9.9%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bouchard, 10+ pts
Last price
9.9%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 3-6%
9.4%
Polymarket 9.4%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 17.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $559 (5.59x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 3-6%
Last price
9.4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
17.9¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$559 (5.59x)
Volume
$907
Trade this on Polymarket
Bouchard, 13+ pts
4.4%
Kalshi 4.4%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 7.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bouchard, 13+ pts
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
7.7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,299 (13.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 12-15%
3.9%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 12-15%
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$178
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 18%+
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 18%+
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$195
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 15-18%
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-18%
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$243
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Michigan Department of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Hines, 2+ pts
  • Hines, 5+ pts
  • Bouchard, 1+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Hines, 2+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Michigan's 10th District margin of victory". Hines, 2+ pts leads at 64%. Next is Hines, 5+ pts at 43%. $40K has traded across 20 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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