The Prediction Markets

Michigan's 11th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$27K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Moss, 11+ pts 91.5%

Next is Moss, 14+ pts at 84.7%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Moss, 11+ pts
91.5%
Kalshi 91.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moss, 11+ pts
Last price
91.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97.6¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$26
Trade this on Kalshi
Moss, 14+ pts
84.7%
Kalshi 84.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 90.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moss, 14+ pts
Last price
84.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
90.3¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Moss, 17+ pts
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moss, 17+ pts
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Moss, 20+ pts
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moss, 20+ pts
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$65
Trade this on Kalshi
Moss, 23+ pts
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moss, 23+ pts
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Moss, 26+ pts
40.5%
Kalshi 40.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moss, 26+ pts
Last price
40.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Moss, 29+ pts
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moss, 29+ pts
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$154
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 25-30%
23%
Polymarket 23%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Moss, 32+ pts
19.5%
Kalshi 19.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moss, 32+ pts
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 15-20%
19.5%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $493 (4.93x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20.3¢
Sell Yes
18.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$493 (4.93x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 8 more outcomes
Democrat 20-25%
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 30-35%
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30-35%
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Moss, 35+ pts
7.1%
Kalshi 7.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moss, 35+ pts
Last price
7.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
4.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 10-15%
3.6%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-15%
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.3¢
Sell Yes
2.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,326 (23.3x)
Volume
$471
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 40%+
1.8%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 40%+
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$558
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 35-40%
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35-40%
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,348 (43.5x)
Volume
$967
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$416
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-10%
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-10%
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Moss, 11+ pts
  • Moss, 14+ pts
  • Moss, 17+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Moss, 11+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Michigan's 11th District margin of victory". Moss, 11+ pts leads at 91.5%. Next is Moss, 14+ pts at 84.7%. $27K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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