The Prediction Markets

Michigan's 12th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$22K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Tlaib, 34+ pts 95.9%

Next is Tlaib, 37+ pts at 94.7%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Tlaib, 34+ pts
95.9%
Kalshi 95.9%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 99.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tlaib, 34+ pts
Last price
95.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.3¢
Sell Yes
92.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Tlaib, 37+ pts
94.7%
Kalshi 94.7%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 99.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tlaib, 37+ pts
Last price
94.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.2¢
Sell Yes
90.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Tlaib, 40+ pts
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 96.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tlaib, 40+ pts
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96.8¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Tlaib, 43+ pts
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tlaib, 43+ pts
Last price
75%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Tlaib, 46+ pts
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tlaib, 46+ pts
Last price
61%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Kalshi
Tlaib, 49+ pts
45.5%
Kalshi 45.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tlaib, 49+ pts
Last price
45.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Tlaib, 52+ pts
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tlaib, 52+ pts
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 55-60%
25%
Polymarket 25%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 55-60%
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 45-50%
23%
Polymarket 23%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 45-50%
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tlaib, 55+ pts
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tlaib, 55+ pts
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$34
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 9 more outcomes
Democrat 50-55%
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 50-55%
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tlaib, 58+ pts
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tlaib, 58+ pts
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 40-45%
9.4%
Polymarket 9.4%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 40-45%
Last price
9.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
4.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 35-40%
8.7%
Polymarket 8.7%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 16.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $602 (6.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35-40%
Last price
8.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16.6¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$602 (6.02x)
Volume
$741
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 25-35%
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 5.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-35%
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.2¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,923 (19.2x)
Volume
$670
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-25%
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-25%
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.4¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,273 (22.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 60-65%
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 60-65%
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$567
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 65%+
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 65%+
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$463
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$513
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Tlaib, 34+ pts
  • Tlaib, 37+ pts
  • Tlaib, 40+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Tlaib, 34+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Michigan's 12th District margin of victory". Tlaib, 34+ pts leads at 95.9%. Next is Tlaib, 37+ pts at 94.7%. $22K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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