The Prediction Markets

Michigan's 1st District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$59K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Bergman, 1+ pts 85%

Next is Bergman, 4+ pts at 73%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Bergman, 1+ pts
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bergman, 1+ pts
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Bergman, 4+ pts
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bergman, 4+ pts
Last price
73%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bergman, 7+ pts
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bergman, 7+ pts
Last price
64%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bergman, 10+ pts
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bergman, 10+ pts
Last price
52%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bergman, 13+ pts
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bergman, 13+ pts
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 10-15%
33%
Polymarket 33%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-15%
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 15-20%
28%
Polymarket 28%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bergman, 16+ pts
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bergman, 16+ pts
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 5-10%
23%
Polymarket 23%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 5-10%
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bergman, 19+ pts
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bergman, 19+ pts
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
Bergman, 22+ pts
8.6%
Kalshi 8.6%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bergman, 22+ pts
Last price
8.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
7.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 20-25%
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bergman, 28+ pts
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 9.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,053 (10.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bergman, 28+ pts
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,053 (10.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 25%+
4.6%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25%+
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bergman, 25+ pts
4.4%
Kalshi 4.4%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bergman, 25+ pts
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 0-5%
3.2%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 5.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-5%
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
5.6¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,786 (17.9x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-5%
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$668
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 5%+
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5%+
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
3.5¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,857 (28.6x)
Volume
$691
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Bergman, 1+ pts
  • Bergman, 4+ pts
  • Bergman, 7+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Bergman, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Michigan's 1st District margin of victory". Bergman, 1+ pts leads at 85%. Next is Bergman, 4+ pts at 73%. $59K has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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