The Prediction Markets

Michigan's 2nd District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 12 months
Traded
$42K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
3 h ago
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What the markets expect

Moolenaar, 15+ pts 98.3%

Next is Moolenaar, 18+ pts at 82%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Moolenaar, 15+ pts
98.3%
Kalshi 98.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 98.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moolenaar, 15+ pts
Last price
98.3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
98.3¢
Sell Yes
9.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$382
Trade this on Kalshi
Moolenaar, 18+ pts
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 99.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moolenaar, 18+ pts
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
99.8¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Moolenaar, 21+ pts
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 98.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moolenaar, 21+ pts
Last price
63%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
98.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$169
Trade this on Kalshi
Moolenaar, 24+ pts
49.2%
Kalshi 49.2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 98.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moolenaar, 24+ pts
Last price
49.2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
98.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Moolenaar, 36+ pts
49.1%
Kalshi 49.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 98.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moolenaar, 36+ pts
Last price
49.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
98.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 30-35%
46.3%
Polymarket 46.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 90.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30-35%
Last price
46.3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
90.2¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Moolenaar, 27+ pts
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 98.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moolenaar, 27+ pts
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
98.2¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 15-20%
46%
Polymarket 46%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 10-15%
44.4%
Polymarket 44.4%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 87.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-15%
Last price
44.4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
87.6¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 25-30%
40%
Polymarket 40%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 78¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 8 more outcomes
Republican 20-25%
38.6%
Polymarket 38.6%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 74.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
38.6%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
74.2¢
Sell Yes
2.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Moolenaar, 30+ pts
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 98.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moolenaar, 30+ pts
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
98.3¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$506
Trade this on Kalshi
Moolenaar, 33+ pts
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 98.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moolenaar, 33+ pts
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
98.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Moolenaar, 39+ pts
8.6%
Kalshi 8.6%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 98.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moolenaar, 39+ pts
Last price
8.6%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
98.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 35-40%
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 35-40%
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 40%+
2.4%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 40%+
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-10%
2.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-10%
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat Wins
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Michigan Department of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Moolenaar, 15+ pts
  • Moolenaar, 18+ pts
  • Moolenaar, 21+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Moolenaar, 15+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Michigan's 2nd District margin of victory". Moolenaar, 15+ pts leads at 98.3%. Next is Moolenaar, 18+ pts at 82%. $42K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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