The Prediction Markets

Michigan's 5th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$29K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Walberg, 13+ pts 84%

Next is Walberg, 16+ pts at 76%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Walberg, 13+ pts
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 92.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Walberg, 13+ pts
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92.4¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Walberg, 16+ pts
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Walberg, 16+ pts
Last price
76%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Walberg, 19+ pts
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Walberg, 19+ pts
Last price
64%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Walberg, 22+ pts
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Walberg, 22+ pts
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Walberg, 25+ pts
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Walberg, 25+ pts
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$73
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 15-20%
35.5%
Polymarket 35.5%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
33.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Walberg, 28+ pts
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Walberg, 28+ pts
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 20-25%
27.5%
Polymarket 27.5%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
27.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Walberg, 31+ pts
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Walberg, 31+ pts
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$276
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 25-30%
19.5%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 8 more outcomes
Republican 10-15%
13.6%
Polymarket 13.6%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-15%
Last price
13.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Walberg, 34+ pts
13.4%
Kalshi 13.4%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Walberg, 34+ pts
Last price
13.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
7.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Walberg, 37+ pts
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Walberg, 37+ pts
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 30-35%
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30-35%
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat Wins
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 35-40%
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 35-40%
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 40%+
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 40%+
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-10%
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-10%
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$965
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Michigan Department of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Walberg, 13+ pts
  • Walberg, 16+ pts
  • Walberg, 19+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Walberg, 13+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Michigan's 5th District margin of victory". Walberg, 13+ pts leads at 84%. Next is Walberg, 16+ pts at 76%. $29K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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