The Prediction Markets

Michigan's 6th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$22K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Dingell, 20+ pts 91.4%

Next is Dingell, 23+ pts at 84.7%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Dingell, 20+ pts
91.4%
Kalshi 91.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dingell, 20+ pts
Last price
91.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98.8¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$994
Trade this on Kalshi
Dingell, 23+ pts
84.7%
Kalshi 84.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 90.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dingell, 23+ pts
Last price
84.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
90.3¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Dingell, 26+ pts
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dingell, 26+ pts
Last price
68%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$258
Trade this on Kalshi
Dingell, 29+ pts
62.5%
Kalshi 62.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dingell, 29+ pts
Last price
62.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Dingell, 32+ pts
51.5%
Kalshi 51.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dingell, 32+ pts
Last price
51.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Dingell, 35+ pts
41.5%
Kalshi 41.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dingell, 35+ pts
Last price
41.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Dingell, 38+ pts
30.5%
Kalshi 30.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dingell, 38+ pts
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 35-40%
21.5%
Polymarket 21.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 22.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $439 (4.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35-40%
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22.8¢
Sell Yes
20.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$439 (4.39x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dingell, 41+ pts
20.5%
Kalshi 20.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dingell, 41+ pts
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 40-45%
20.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 23.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $422 (4.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 40-45%
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23.7¢
Sell Yes
17.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$422 (4.22x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
Dingell, 44+ pts
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dingell, 44+ pts
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
5.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$90
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 25-30%
13.6%
Polymarket 13.6%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
13.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
12.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 30-35%
13.2%
Polymarket 13.2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 21.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $467 (4.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30-35%
Last price
13.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21.4¢
Sell Yes
4.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$467 (4.67x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 45-50%
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 7.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 45-50%
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.8¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,282 (12.8x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 10-20%
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 7.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-20%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.5¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,333 (13.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 20-25%
2.4%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 50%+
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 50%+
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$672
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-10%
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-10%
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$516
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$543
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Dingell, 20+ pts
  • Dingell, 23+ pts
  • Dingell, 26+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Dingell, 20+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Michigan's 6th District margin of victory". Dingell, 20+ pts leads at 91.4%. Next is Dingell, 23+ pts at 84.7%. $22K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More other markets

See all other markets