The Prediction Markets

Michigan's 7th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$47K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Lawrence, 1+ pts 69%

Next is Lawrence, 4+ pts at 43%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Lawrence, 1+ pts
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lawrence, 1+ pts
Last price
69%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Lawrence, 4+ pts
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lawrence, 4+ pts
Last price
43%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 3-6%
27.5%
Polymarket 27.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 3-6%
Last price
27.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lawrence, 7+ pts
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lawrence, 7+ pts
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 0-3%
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-3%
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Barrett, 2+ pts
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Barrett, 2+ pts
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 0-3%
17.9%
Polymarket 17.9%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 21.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $459 (4.59x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-3%
Last price
17.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21.8¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$459 (4.59x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Barrett, 1+ pts
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Barrett, 1+ pts
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$201
Trade this on Kalshi
Lawrence, 10+ pts
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lawrence, 10+ pts
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Barrett, 5+ pts
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Barrett, 5+ pts
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
6.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 10 more outcomes
Republican 9-12%
10.9%
Polymarket 10.9%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 17.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $581 (5.81x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 9-12%
Last price
10.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17.2¢
Sell Yes
4.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$581 (5.81x)
Volume
$386
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 12%+
10.8%
Polymarket 10.8%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 12%+
Last price
10.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
3.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$477
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 6-9%
9.7%
Polymarket 9.7%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 13.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $741 (7.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 6-9%
Last price
9.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13.5¢
Sell Yes
5.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$741 (7.41x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lawrence, 13+ pts
9.6%
Kalshi 9.6%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lawrence, 13+ pts
Last price
9.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Lawrence, 16+ pts
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lawrence, 16+ pts
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Barrett, 8+ pts
6.3%
Kalshi 6.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Barrett, 8+ pts
Last price
6.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
9.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,020 (10.2x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 3-6%
4.7%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 8.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,176 (11.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 3-6%
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.5¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,176 (11.8x)
Volume
$503
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 12%+
3.6%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 12%+
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$345
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 6-9%
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 6-9%
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.3¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,326 (23.3x)
Volume
$293
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 9-12%
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 9-12%
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$714
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Lawrence, 1+ pts
  • Lawrence, 4+ pts
  • Democrat 3-6%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Lawrence, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Michigan's 7th District margin of victory". Lawrence, 1+ pts leads at 69%. Next is Lawrence, 4+ pts at 43%. $47K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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