The Prediction Markets

Michigan's 8th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$27K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Rivet, 5+ pts 93.1%

Next is Rivet, 2+ pts at 92.2%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Rivet, 5+ pts
93.1%
Kalshi 93.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rivet, 5+ pts
Last price
93.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
90.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Rivet, 2+ pts
92.2%
Kalshi 92.2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 96.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rivet, 2+ pts
Last price
92.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
96.1¢
Sell Yes
92.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rivet, 8+ pts
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 95.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rivet, 8+ pts
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
95.8¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$511
Trade this on Kalshi
Rivet, 11+ pts
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rivet, 11+ pts
Last price
77%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rivet, 14+ pts
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rivet, 14+ pts
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$61
Trade this on Kalshi
Rivet, 17+ pts
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rivet, 17+ pts
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$90
Trade this on Kalshi
Rivet, 20+ pts
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rivet, 20+ pts
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$225
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 15-20%
27.5%
Polymarket 27.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
27.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 10-15%
24.5%
Polymarket 24.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-15%
Last price
24.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 20-25%
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 8 more outcomes
Rivet, 23+ pts
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rivet, 23+ pts
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$520
Trade this on Kalshi
Rivet, 26+ pts
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rivet, 26+ pts
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 25-30%
5.4%
Polymarket 5.4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
5.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Smith, 1+ pts
4.7%
Kalshi 4.7%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Smith, 1+ pts
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 5-10%
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5-10%
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$495
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-5%
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$527
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$558
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 30%+
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30%+
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$987
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Michigan Department of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Rivet, 5+ pts
  • Rivet, 2+ pts
  • Rivet, 8+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Rivet, 5+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Michigan's 8th District margin of victory". Rivet, 5+ pts leads at 93.1%. Next is Rivet, 2+ pts at 92.2%. $27K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More other markets

See all other markets